Northeast Could Get Snow on Winter's Last Weekend (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: March 9,2015



 

By March, only the avid skier, snowboarder or student looking for more snow days wants more snow, particularly in New England during one of the snowiest seasons on record.
After finally getting a warmer tease this week, more snow could fall in parts of the Northeast during the final weekend of winter. Our apologies. We're only the messengers here.
Here's what we know at this early stage.

Ample moisture flowing into lingering cold air may produce snow in parts of the Northeast this weekend.

The Ingredients

A plume of fairly deep and moist air along with a weakening upper-level low-pressure system will slowly push northeastward from the southern U.S. late this week.
This moisture will join forces with cold air  – by "cold" we mean air at or below freezing near the ground – lingering over parts of the Northeast. In addition, fresh cold air will be arriving from the Great Lakes, ushered in by a dip in the jet stream.
Typical of any forecast this far out, there are uncertainties.
Perhaps the most significant uncertainty right now is how cold the lingering cold air will be over the Northeast as the moisture from the South begins to intercept it. The longer the cold air hangs in, the more snow, sleet or freezing rain may be wrung out over parts of the Northeast.
Also, if low pressure is able to strengthen offshore and hang in a little longer this weekend, snow or rain may persist longer and strong winds may become an issue.

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday's Forecast

The Forecast

At this time, here's how the forecast is shaping up.
First, we can't rule out a little freezing rain or sleet late Thursday into early Friday as leftover cold air hangs in place initially in the Shenandoah Valley. Then, moisture begins to move into the Northeast by Friday night with rain and snow developing.
- Saturday: Moisture from the south should start intercepting the lingering cold air over at least parts of Upstate New York and northern New England. Again, the rain/snow line remains uncertain. This could include some wet snow in the Boston area.
- Sunday: It gets more interesting, as the more vigorous jet stream dips in, bringing deeper, colder air into at least parts of the Northeast and possibly interacts with a lagging offshore low. Snow may be heavy over parts of New England. This could be accompanied by strong winds in parts of coastal New England.
Again, it's much too soon to nail down the important details such as who gets how much snow. Here is our general outlook:
- Best chance of 6 inches or more of snow: Parts of Maine, New Hampshire
- Accumulating snow: Upstate, central/western New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Appalachians.
- Little or no accumulating snow: I-95 corridor from NYC metro southward.
(FORECASTS: Boston | Bangor, Maine | Albany, New York)
Note that precipitation may change over to rain for a time Saturday over the heavy southern New England snowpack.
However, the warm sector of this system may move along quickly enough to minimize what otherwise might be a threat of flooding from melting snow and rain.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this mid-March weekend mess.

MORE: Boston's Snow Misery 2015