Hurricane Vance Nudges Toward Mexico's Pacific Coast; Tropical Storm Watch Issued

November 3,2014



 
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for portions of its Pacific coastline as Hurricane Vance continues to gradually draw nearer, bringing the potential for high surf and heavy rainfall for parts of the country over the next few days.
Vance continues to maintain strength over the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 450 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. It became a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Sunday evening with winds of 105 mph. Its top winds ticked up to 110 mph Monday afternoon and remained there Monday evening.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
However, its time of intensification appears to be ending.
Hurricane Vance is tracking to the north, and will start to move slightly east of due north in the coming days as a mid-level ridge near the southern Baja California peninsula shifts eastward and a trough approaches.
Vance doesn't have much time left to try to peak as a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane. If it does, it would be the ninth major hurricane of 2014 in the Eastern Pacific (10 if one counts Genevieve), and would break the eastern Pacific seasonal record for Category 3 or stronger hurricanes, according to hurricane specialist, Michael Lowry.
However, wind shear is already increasing over Vance, and, given Vance's tiny size (hurricane-force winds only up to 15 miles from center), rapid weakening is possible beginning Tuesday. Vance may spin down so quickly that it may never make landfall as a tropical cyclone, rather as a remnant low, late Wednesday or early Thursday generally north of Puerto Vallarta.

Impacts Expected

A tropical storm watch is in effect along the coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan north to Tobolobampo. This watch is entirely within the state of Sinaloa and has been issued as a precaution in case Vance doesn't weaken as quickly as expected.
Given Vance's initially powerful winds, swells from Vance will churn up high surf and rip currents at Mexico's Pacific beaches, even as the storm itself loses steam before reaching land. Social media photos from those beaches Monday showed tranquil conditions, but by Tuesday beachgoers can expect higher surf and dangerous rip currents to arrive.
As Vance or its remnants approach Meixco and move onshore and tangle, very heavy rainfall may result, mainly Thursday and Friday. This could lead to flash flooding in the states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango in northwestern Mexico, especially in areas of rugged terrain. Below is the latest rainfall forecast from the European (ECMWF) computer model. Most of the heavy rain shown over western Mexico will fall between now and Thursday.

Running Out of Names?

Vance is the 20th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The last time 20 or more named storms formed in that basin was 1992, when the entire list of 24 names was used, ending with Tropical Storm Zeke.
Zeke is also the "Z" storm on this year's list. Eastern Pacific names rotate every six years unless retired, except for names starting with X, Y, and Z. Those are rarely used, and thus just two names are on the list for each of those letters, one male and one female, alternating every other year.
Vance became a Category 1 hurricane Sunday morning, making it the 14th hurricane of 2014 within the Eastern Pacific basin. (Genevieve, which started in the Eastern Pacific, became a hurricane in the Central Pacific basin -- if one counts Genevieve, there have been 15 hurricanes with Eastern Pacific origins this year.)