Election Day 2014 Forecast: Will Weather Help Determine Senate Control?

By Jon Erdman
Published: November 3,2014

 
 
Tuesday's 2014 midterm elections will determine which party gains control of the U.S. Senate, and weather may factor into the results.
According to polling data from realclearpolitics.com, Senate races in 11 states are either toss-ups or only lean toward either the Republican or Democratic candidate heading into the election.
Research commissioned by The Weather Channel prior to the 2012 Presidential election found clear links between Election Day turnout and bad weather. Among them:
- In bad weather, Republican supporters are more likely to vote.
- Decided voters are almost twice as likely to vote in bad weather as undecided voters.
- Icy roads are the biggest weather impediment to voters age 55 and older, impacting roughly 1 in 8 such voters.
- Those with income levels less than $50,000 a year are less likely to vote on a bad weather day than those making more than $50,000 a year.
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"Where the weather is okay this year the Democrats won't necessarily get a bump -- they just won't have to deal with the drag on turnout," said Paul Walsh, business weather expert at The Weather Channel and CNBC.
A recent paper discussed in the Pacific Standard found that bad weather's impact on the electorate's mood favors the safe choice of incumbents, not necessarily candidates from one party, and doesn't necessarily suppress turnout.
With that in mind, let's break down Tuesday's forecast to see if weather may impact any of the 11 tight Senate race states.

Election Day Forecast

At this time, it appears inclement weather will only be a significant concern in one of the 11 close Senate race states: Arkansas.
A band of rain with embedded thunderstorms will slide slowly across the Natural State Tuesday. The best chance of rain much of the day will be in northern and western Arkansas. Furthermore, daytime highs may be stuck in the 50s where the rain persists longest.
(FORECAST: Little Rock | Fayetteville | Ft. Smith | Jonesboro)
Far southeast Arkansas, however, may miss out on rain for a good part of the day, with temperatures still managing to jump into the 70s. That said, southeast Arkansas is the least populated region of the state.
Rain is also possible, particularly late in the day in western Kentucky, and some chilly showers are possible along parts of the southern Alaskan coast.
(FORECAST: Paducah | Louisville | Anchorage | Juneau)
Otherwise, weather in the remaining eight states with tight Senate races shouldn't play a significant role. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule in most of the East, thanks to weak high pressure, the rain should hold off in most of Louisiana, and dry, seasonable weather will be in place in Iowa, Kansas, and Colorado.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | New Orleans | Des Moines | Denver)
"On net, and based on the research we and others have done, it looks like weather for this year's mid-term elections will be favoring the Republican candidates," says Walsh.