Nearly nineteen million people in the Eastern U.S. are under a Winter
Storm Warning as a poorly-timed Nor'easter socks it to travelers hitting
the roads and skies in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday. The storm
was bringing heavy rain to the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast U.S. Wednesday morning, and heavy snows inland over the higher
terrain. As of 9:30 am EST, widespread snowfall amounts of 1 - 3" had
been reported over Western Virginia and West Virginia, with a maximum of
8" reported at Frenchburg, WV and 6" at Mount Rogers, VA. The rains
falling closer to the coast will change to snow on Wednesday afternoon
at the same time that millions of people hit the roads, bringing a major
pre-holiday travel mess. Little or no accumulation is likely in Washington D.C., but Philadelphia is under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 - 3" of snow. Snowfall amounts of 1 - 3" are also expected in New York City, and Boston
is likely to get 1 - 2" of slushy snow and sleet. The heaviest snows
from the storm will come Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, and
may take some time to accumulate on the roads due to stored heat from
the warm temperatures of the past few days. Heavier snows will fall
inland from the coast, where widespread snow amounts of 6 - 12 inches
are likely along a swath from Northeast Pennsylvania and Northwest New
Jersey into Maine, including Hartford, Connecticut and central Massachusetts cities like Worcester. The most serious impacts may be in Portland, Maine, which is under a Winter Storm Warning for 8 - 12" of snow.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 9:45 am EST November 26, 2014 of the pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter affecting the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Air travel will be heavily impacted
Low visibility and low cloud ceilings due to heavy rain in the major cities along the East Coast on Wednesday morning were causing extensive flight delays across much of the U.S. These delays will increase on Wednesday afternoon as the snow moves in. The FlightAware.com MiseryMap showed 490 delayed flights and 12 cancelled flights between 8 am and noon EST on Wednesday, with 42% of the delays occurring in DC, Philadelphia, Newark, NYC, and Boston.
As of 10 am EST, the FAA was reporting the following average flight delays for flights whose destinations were these airports:
NYC La Guardia: 3 hours, 9 minutes
Newark, NJ: 3 hours, 18 minutes
Philadelphia, PA: 1 hour, 43 minutes
Minneapolis, MN: 1 hour, 23 minutes
Figure 2. Snowfall forecast for the New York City area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS New York City.
Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Boston area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Boston.
Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Philadelphia area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Philadelphia.
Have safe travels and a great Thanksgiving holiday, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 9:45 am EST November 26, 2014 of the pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter affecting the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Air travel will be heavily impacted
Low visibility and low cloud ceilings due to heavy rain in the major cities along the East Coast on Wednesday morning were causing extensive flight delays across much of the U.S. These delays will increase on Wednesday afternoon as the snow moves in. The FlightAware.com MiseryMap showed 490 delayed flights and 12 cancelled flights between 8 am and noon EST on Wednesday, with 42% of the delays occurring in DC, Philadelphia, Newark, NYC, and Boston.
As of 10 am EST, the FAA was reporting the following average flight delays for flights whose destinations were these airports:
NYC La Guardia: 3 hours, 9 minutes
Newark, NJ: 3 hours, 18 minutes
Philadelphia, PA: 1 hour, 43 minutes
Minneapolis, MN: 1 hour, 23 minutes
Figure 2. Snowfall forecast for the New York City area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS New York City.
Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Boston area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Boston.
Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Philadelphia area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Philadelphia.
Have safe travels and a great Thanksgiving holiday, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Winter Weather
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A pattern shift is expected as we enter early December, with
above-average heights in the East and below-average heights in the West.
This should correlate to warmer temperatures in the East and cooler
temperatures in the West; in addition, with a cut-off low expected to
track towards California, there should be plenty of beneficial rainfall
there. Don't expect this pattern to last though. 
|
273. oldnewmex
4:21 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 271. PedleyCA: Hi, Ped. Just hanging around after enjoying an early feast with the family; we should have a pretty nice day tomorrow and Friday, followed by a week of slush and rain. Link |
272. Grothar
4:13 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
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271. PedleyCA
3:59 AM GMT on November 27, 2014| Very quiet in here, about 20 posts in 4 hours. Everyone must have left town.. |
270. ColoradoBob1
3:34 AM GMT on November 27, 2014| What I find really stupid Is our thinking that all these events Are one off events. |
269. ColoradoBob1
3:24 AM GMT on November 27, 2014|
After fire and floods, restoring a sacred New Mexico canyon and a way of life Link |
268. ColoradoBob1
3:16 AM GMT on November 27, 2014|
Montpiller, France has been growing grapes long before the Romans. What happened to them this fall is important. Compere it to the Santa Calra |
267. ColoradoBob1
3:03 AM GMT on November 27, 2014|
The Polar Circulation is So Wrecked That Surface Winds Now Rotate Around Greenland (Surface air flow encirclements of Greenland similar to conditions observed above were highly anomalous during the 20th Century. During the 21st Century, such a storm enhancing pattern is likely to become much more prevalent as an up-shot of human-driven polar warming. In the above shot, note the low spinning off Spain and heading toward Morocco off an anomalous and persistent dip in the Jet resulting from this abnormal pattern. More floods potentially on the way for that already hard-hit region. Image source: Earth Nullschool.) Link |
266. ColoradoBob1
2:54 AM GMT on November 27, 2014|
This south / north jet stream pattern is nearly 3 months old. It has trashed France, Italy, Greece and points East. Now it has moved even further south into Africa. The jet stream in this part of world dives very deep to south , and goes all the way to the pole. If one believes this normal, you are not a grape framer near Montpiller, France. Because their world has been wrecked. |
265. georgevandenberghe
2:54 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 246. sar2401: I've posted the northeast saying before. "If Ice in November will bear a duck. There'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck" We're not turkey people either preferring ducks or goose. |
264. ColoradoBob1
2:37 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 248. barbamz: The Polar Circulation is So Wrecked That Surface Winds Now Rotate Around Greenland (Surface air flow encirclements of Greenland similar to conditions observed above were highly anomalous during the 20th Century. During the 21st Century, such a storm enhancing pattern is likely to become much more prevalent as an up-shot of human-driven polar warming. In the above shot, note the low spinning off Spain and heading toward Morocco off an anomalous and persistent dip in the Jet resulting from this abnormal pattern. More floods potentially on the way for that already hard-hit region. Image source: Earth Nullschool.) Link |
263. PedleyCA
1:58 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
 Rain Mon-Tues.... MAYBE |
262. PedleyCA
1:20 AM GMT on November 27, 2014|
ndian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS) Updated: 5:09 PM PST on November 26, 2014 Clear 81.3 °F / 27.4 °C Clear Heat Index: 79 °F / 26 °C Humidity: 11% Dew Point: 22 °F / -6 °C Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the SSE Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h Pressure: 30.11 in / 1020 hPa (Steady) Today was Low 51.8 and High 84.1 Hasn't been 85 since 11/9.... |
261. hydrus
12:37 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
 
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260. hydrus
12:33 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Florida may have a chance to dry out a bit..
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259. barbamz
12:27 AM GMT on November 27, 2014| #257 Chris: I stand in awe :-) Some future support from your side is really very welcome! Good night now for good, it's late ... |
258. hurricanes2018
12:21 AM GMT on November 27, 2014| its snowing at my house |
257. ChrisHamburg
12:12 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 248. barbamz: Very worrying indeed. The last system came from the south and hit the mountains, now it will come from the north with a very potent Jet Stream. That would be a double whammy in such a short time period and especially the mountainous regions will be hit again, with the infrastructure already damaged. And Greetings back to Mainz if I remember correctly. And nice blog about ICON, bought a Theoretical Meteorology textbook recently Link. The Math isn't for the faint of heart I have to say. But for a better understanding I think there is no way around it, even if I get my head only around 10% of the subject. And models are pure mathematics. |
256. hydrus
12:11 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
 A little tidbit for a few of the TN folks.. THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN 2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER 26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES. |
255. BahaHurican
12:07 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 246. sar2401:I guess we come by our cold now = hot later theories honestly, then. It hasn't been all that cold, but the lingering front last week kept temps from soaring the way they have in other recent Novembers. Christmas Day is still rather early to forecast, but I would not be at all surprised to be sweating rather than shivering at Boxing Day Junkanoo this year.... lol ... |
254. sar2401
12:01 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:Even though it's pretty well known I'm no fan of snow, that's one part of winter I do miss. I took Radar Dog on a walk about midnight on the day we had our three inch snowfall this January. It's normally pretty quiet in this podunk town at midnight anyway but I could hear my heart beating that night. |
253. BahaHurican
12:00 AM GMT on November 27, 2014
Quoting 247. Skyepony:Still warm here for now, but I anticipate wearing a sweater tomorrow. ... lol ... |
252. Climate175
11:59 PM GMT on November 26, 2014| 18z showed that Dec 2 storm as a rainstorm now but you know how models can change, If it is the case, looks like the 2 week pattern is the pattern this winter. |
251. Climate175
11:56 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:2nd week in Dec and the fun begins. |
250. washingtonian115
11:53 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
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249. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:52 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy: Dunno, I haven't read up on what changes the PGFS will bring when it's upgraded in early January. I know one thing for sure though--there was no improvement with regards to winter weather forecasting. The PGFS handled the ongoing winter storm pitifully. |
248. barbamz
11:49 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 241. ChrisHamburg: Hi Chris, and yes, you are right. I've just realized that the worst is still to come for Morocco when looking at the big bunch of clouds still out in the Atlantic and inserted a GFS-map into the post above. This really looks very dangerous. Greeting to Hamburg! |
247. Skyepony (Mod)
11:48 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 244. BahaHurican: Look out.. it's cold on the backside of that. Just got to 49.8ºF. |
246. sar2401
11:46 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting barbamz:Sounds fabulous, but I'm not even sure where could find a packet of mugwort or even a goose here. Ducks are not a problem, but I don't even remember seeing a goose for sale. The cooking procedure makes roasting a turkey sound easy by comparison. There's quite a bit of weather folklore surrounding St. Martins Day. In English folklore, a period of fine, calm weather, similar to an Indian summer, occurring in November, is attributed to St. Martin. Hungarian sayings are that, "If on St. Martin’s Day the goose walks on ice, it will be waddling in water on Christmas" and “If Martin arrives on a white horse snow), expect a mild winter. If Martin arrives on a brown horse (ground made muddy by rain) a harsh winter can be expected.” I found several instances of "Ice before Martinmas means mud at Christmas" and "If the leaves do not fall by St. Martin's, expect a cold winter" as common in many parts of Europe. And, for Naga, there's even a sociology paper done about St. Martin's Day in Ireland, including even more weather folklore about St. Martin's Day, so St. Martin is not so off-topic after all. Isn't Google wonderful? :-) |
245. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:46 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 243. Skyepony:nothing beats a fresh fall of snow its my fav when its just a couple of hrs old and it normally is so quiet afterwards then tomorrow after everyone walks and drives in it it gets all dirty and sloppy |
244. BahaHurican
11:44 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 209. BahaHurican:LOL .... it started raining about 5 minutes after I posted this message... lol ... |
243. Skyepony (Mod)
11:42 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Jeb1992's wundercam in Morgantown, PA.
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242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:41 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
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241. ChrisHamburg
11:38 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 210. barbamz: The forecast for Morocco has high rain amounts in the next 120 hours, also for some local spots in south Europe:  Forecast for the Jet Stream for the night to Friday:  Weird is the new normal I guess. |
240. CosmicEvents
11:31 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 235. 62901IL:Too bad that those who experienced 1/2 an inch aren't able to put a name on the event so it can be forever remembered. I say we give them a name to remember...winter storm Bupkus. |
239. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:28 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
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238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:27 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
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237. Tropicsweatherpr
11:24 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy: Upgrade of GFS delayed to January 5 |
236. CybrTeddy
11:20 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Any clue if the PGFS will have the same issue once it takes over later on? I believe it's supposed to become operational by December. |
235. 62901IL
11:20 PM GMT on November 26, 2014| Just stopped snowing here in Carbondale...got about 1/2 an inch...but the next name on the list is still Brian since this one wasn't named. |
234. barbamz
11:18 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
In the Philippines the storm was named as "Queenie": Source Pagasa. Power outages hit Bohol in Queenie's wake, some areas evacuated November 27, 2014 3:55am Power outages hit parts of Bohol province in Central Visayas since Wednesday night amid heavy rain from Tropical Depression Queenie, state-run Philippine Information Agency said. In Jagna town, PIA's Bohol unit quoted the local information office as saying power had been out since 9 p.m. Wednesday. Jagna also experienced "very strong" winds, along with possible storm surge and high tide. Evacuation was ongoing in coastal barangays. Heavy rain was also noted in Cortes town, with winds shaking houses, the PIA said. Several other towns in Bohol also experienced power outages. In Dumaguete City in Negros Oriental, meanwhile, heavy rains fell and cable TV signals became intermittent. %u2014 Joel Locsin/ELR, GMA News US people obviously aren't the only folks with difficulties to travel tonight ;-) Thousand stranded in Mindanao ports amid 'Queenie' ABC video report in local language, 11/27/2014 2:20 AM Good night from my side of the pond! |
233. Inyo
11:17 PM GMT on November 26, 2014|
At least 5 or 6 inches of snow on the ground in Montpelier VT, still
dumping down, we are going to have a shot at a foot of snow by the time
it all moves out! It won't really thaw until Sunday at the soonest so plenty of snow to play in this long weekend! Depending on what other sorts of thaws come this may be it - it may stick around unto real winter. |
232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:14 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:ghost storm or not interesting to say the least now that model will keep me watchin see what it does with it here it is on dec 14 10 days later I know its not real but interesting too look at anyway 
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231. 882MB
11:13 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:%u012B I see the new 18Z GFS model run, continues to show development, also continues to move up in timeline. Like I said earlier, very rare but not unheard of, waters in the Caribbean, are still warm enough to support a tropical system, all will depend on the shear and steering currents, which now favor a ENE motion towards the NE Caribbean. Either way looks like some very heavy rain even if it does not develop. I will be watching to see if any more models start agreeing on this scenario. |
230. sar2401
11:10 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:Has WKC been notified of this development yet? This storm has no chance until I start seeing posts from him about it. :-) |
229. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:10 PM GMT on November 26, 2014| The ghost storm on the GFS is probably just a byproduct of the upward MJO pulse forecast to move into the region in the extended range. |
228. sar2401
11:07 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:About half the cams seem to be down, but the ones that are working appear to show all rain. The temperature in Central Park has risen from 34 earlier today up to 37 now. A couple of degrees makes all the difference in these East Coast storms, which is one of the reasons I don't buy doom forecasts until the precipitation actually starts hitting the ground. |
227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:05 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 226. Climate175:I would not go that far yet but weird seems to be new normal when it comes to weather of late |
226. Climate175
11:03 PM GMT on November 26, 2014| So Hurricane Season getting extended lol. |
225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:59 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
dec 4 looks like its when it shows up lol
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224. barbamz
10:59 PM GMT on November 26, 2014
Quoting 87. sar2401: Thanks, Sar; just my pleasure :-) Erntedankfest (Thanksgiving) isn't a real holiday in Germany any longer. Most secular people won't notice it at all. Nowadays it's mostly only celebrated in christian services on the first Sunday in October; inside the churches you'll find some decoration with fruits, vegetables and other goods of nature on this day. Instead of turkey a lot of Germans and other Europeans traditionally cherish roasted and stuffed goose with red cabbage and dumplings. Originally it has been the dish for St. Martin's day (November 11), but today it is served in late autumn and especially in December at (Pre-)Christmas parties and festivities. My nephew is apprentice in an ambitious kitchen of a wealthy bank and has to prepare and roast several hundreds of gooses for heads, guests and staff this time of the year, lol. Eat like a German - German Recipe: Traditional Roast Goose German Style And here a professional explains the recipe: Please take this off topic post as my best wishes to all of you on Thanksgiving! |
274. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:30 AM GMT on November 27, 2014