Thursday, April 10, 2014

Dangerous Cyclone Ita Bearing Down on Queensland

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
April 10,2014; 9:35PM,EDT
 
 
Tropical Cyclone Ita is just a few short hours from making landfall. The Queensland Coast from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery lays in the direct path of Ita.
The latest satellite imagery indicates that slight weakening occurred Thursday evening local time. However, Ita will remain a dangerous, powerful storm through landfall.
The organization of Ita was breathtaking earlier Thursday. The afternoon satellite picture showed an incredibly well organized storm.
A text book stadium effect is present in the Thursday afternoon satellite picture, courtesy of NOAA
More recent satellite imagery shows the eye is not quite as organized. It may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle.
cloud cover has filled in across the eye. This change is indicative of 10-20 mph of weakening, if not more. Image courtesy of NOAA
Even through Ita has weakened some, it still is a very dangerous storm. And, the eyewall could reorganize before landfall. Note, on the previous satellite pictures the deep convection is still nearly symmetrical around the eye. But, the convection is not as deep as it was earlier.
Ita is expected to make landfall with the equivalent strength of a Category 4 hurricane. Australia, which uses a different intensity scale than the U.S., indicates Ita is a Category 5 cyclone, the highest level.
Ita will move onshore Friday afternoon local time, before dawn EST. Devastating impacts are likely. Peak winds at the time of landfall are expected to range from 200 to 225 kph (120 to 140 mph), leading to down trees and power lines with the potential for widespread structural damage.
The expected track will take the cyclone toward the Queensland coastline north of Cairns, an area with a lower population than areas farther south. This region is known for mining and national parks.
Although Ita will be weakening as it approaches Cairns, due to land interaction, flooding rainfall and hurricane-force winds are expected. Conditions will begin to deteriorate around Cairns on Friday with the worst of the storm expected Friday night into Saturday.
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Ita will then continue to the southeast near or just off the coast of Queensland over the weekend spreading heavy rainfall into Townsville and Mackay. Wind gusts over 50 mph will accompany the storm as it moves farther southeast and away from Cairns.

Rainfall will also be a major concern as 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be common within 100 miles of the coastline from north of Cooktown southward to Mackay. Local amounts over 250 mm (10 inches) will be possible across the region, especially from Cairns northward.
By Monday the cyclone will be in a much weakened state as it moves farther southeast off the coast of Queensland with no further widespread damaging winds or flooding rainfall expected over land.

On Social Media
mXBrisbane
mXBrisbane
Cyclone Ita is barreling towards the Queensland coast! Keep dry north Qld - thinking of you!
RSPCA Queensland
RSPCAQld
Are you Cyclone Ready? With Cyclone Ita developing off the North Queensland coast, don't forget to prepare your... fb.me/6A2Omz37f
Dan Satterfield
wildweatherdan
Cat 5 Cyclone Ita approaching Queensland. Aqua Satellite in real colour. fb.me/3rlUrqYfJ
2h
 

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