Tropical Storm Karen Heads Toward Upper Gulf Coast

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

October 5,2013; 11:00AM,EDT

 

 

Tropical Storm Karen continues to churn toward the upper Gulf Coast, where it will move inland later this weekend with heavy rain, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes.
Karen is currently disorganized and a minimal tropical storm, but still threatens to bring adverse impacts to those along the upper Gulf Coast this weekend.
Early next week, potentially flooding rain associated with Karen may spread up the East Coast.
A look at Karen on satellite could give many the impression that the storm is headed directly for central Louisiana. However, Karen should curve to the northeast as Saturday progresses and make its first landfall over southeastern Louisiana on Sunday morning.
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Depending on how Karen curves through southeastern Louisiana, a second landfall between just west of Gulfport, Miss., and Pensacola, Fla., may follow on Sunday evening.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects Karen to move inland as a minimal tropical storm or depression. Karen's maximum sustained winds were 40 mph at midday Saturday.
Near and just east of where Karen makes landfall, minor coastal flooding is possible. Wind gusts in the neighborhood of 40 to 55 mph can cause minor property damage, downed trees and power outages.

A few of Karen's outermost rainbands will reach southeastern Louisiana by Saturday evening. Drenching showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds will become more frequent over more of the upper Gulf Coast, from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, from late Saturday night through Sunday evening.
As Karen churns in the northern Gulf of Mexico, rough surf will threaten small craft and swimmers over a much larger area of the Gulf this weekend.
The danger of rip currents stretches from the western coast of Florida to the Texas coastline.

Coastal flooding will be minor compared to major hurricanes that have struck the region in recent decades. A coastal inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible if the storm arrives during a published high tide cycle from Barataria Bay in Louisiana to Apalachee Bay in Florida. A lesser water level rise would occur during low tide.
Rainfall can be heavy enough to alleviate recent dry conditions in some locations of the South. However, the rain may raise the risk of flooding for parts of the region, not only near the Gulf Coast, but also inland as the storm moves northeastward over the interior South.
Isolated rain totals of 6 inches can occur near and to the east of where Karen comes onshore.

Sometimes as tropical systems make landfall, tornadoes can be produced. On Sunday through Sunday evening, isolated tornadoes could cause damage from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists have been tracking Karen all week.
Karen first started as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the southern and central Caribbean. Disruptive winds kept development to a minimum, but as the disturbance moved into the Gulf, warmer waters and less land interaction allowed some strengthening to occur.
Winds aloft still remain unfavorable which has kept Karen from rapidly intensifying.
Other storm systems across the United States will dictate where Karen and its associated moisture heads after landfall.
This Saturday over the mainland United States, a strong cold front is first moving across the Mississippi Valley.
This front will help pull the moisture from this Gulf of Mexico system northward and enhance rainfall from the Gulf Coast to part of the interior South on Sunday.
The front will eventually bring showers and some thunderstorms to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Monday through Tuesday.
Karen is likely to enhance the rainfall across parts of the mid-Atlantic and and perhaps New England early next week, where the rain is most needed and the weather of late has been more like summer rather than autumn. Strong winds are also possible in any thunderstorms that fire up along the I-95 corridor.
Content contributed by Alex Sosnowski, expert senior meteorologist.