Brewing Tropical Storm May Slam Storm-Ravaged Vietnam

By Mark Paquette

August 5,2013; 4:43PM,EDT

 

 

Satellite image of the tropical disturbance over the South China Sea Monday evening local time.

Tropical Depression 10W is on track to become Tropical Storm Mangkhut in the western South China Sea.
This system is heading towards the northwest over very warm waters, so some strengthening is likely. However, a moderate amount of wind shear, which is changing wind directions and speed with height in the atmosphere, will likely not allow for explosive development. Weak or no wind shear, when combined with other atmospheric conditions, will allow a tropical system to develop quickly.
This system is on a path similar to the last tropical system, Jebi, just a tad farther south of Jebi's track. Thus, Hainan Island, China and northern Vietnam that saw flash floods from Jebi will see the weather deteriorate yet again Wednesday afternoon through Thursday local time.
Heavy rainfall (5-10 inches, locally a foot or more in the mountains) will be the main impact once again. Flooding and mudslides are a major concern, since the ground is already saturated from Jebi's rain.
Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, will be the biggest city impacted and will likely see more rain than the area experienced during Jebi.