Parade of Atlantic Tropical Disturbances Picks Up Pace

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

August 29,2013; 9:07PM,EDT

 

 

While systems remain weak over the tropical Atlantic, there are still multiple features to keep an eye on through the Labor Day weekend.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The most notable system that could impact people within a few days is a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic, located at about 45 degrees west longitude Thursday midday."
This feature has developed a weak circulation in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it has been somewhat limited in thunderstorm development.

There is a chance this feature becomes better organized over the next few days. Regardless of development, as this system continues westward, it will bring a pulse of showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week.
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Another tropical disturbance is moving westward off the coast of Africa Thursday. There is also a chance this system becomes better organized into the weekend.
The parade of tropical disturbances continues to pick up the pace over Africa.

Not only are there more disturbances, when compared to recent weeks, the disturbances are stronger to begin with, producing more thunderstorms over Africa.
While this is not a guarantee for future development, when combined with warm waters and more moisture in general over the tropical Atlantic, the odds of one or more systems developing into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes continue to increase.
In the current pattern development of more than one tropical depression through the first week of September should not come as a surprise.

Another spot to keep an eye on, in addition to the train of disturbances over the tropical Atlantic, is the area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche. This area gave quick rise to Tropical Storm Fernand last weekend, which produced deadly flash flooding in Mexico.
"There are no such features over the Atlantic Basin Thursday," Kottlowski said. "Most disturbances on the playing field right now will be counter-balanced by pockets of disruptive winds as they move along, especially those that travel over much of the Caribbean Sea and drift farther north over mid-latitudes of the Atlantic."

There is no reason to alter travel plans at this time but rather continue to monitor the tropics. In this pattern portions of the Atlantic Basin can get out of balance, tipping in the favor of development with little notice.