Tropical Storm Hermine Racing Through the Carolinas With Gusty Winds and Heavy Rain; Could Linger Off Mid-Atlantic Through the Holiday Weekend

September 2,2016
Hermine continues to bring strong winds to the coastal Carolinas and will near the Atlantic by late Saturday. Labor Day Weekend plans should be double checked along the eastern seaboard.
The main concerns from Hermine early Saturday will be heavy rain, and tropical storm-force wind gusts in a swath from the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.
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Various tropical storm warnings continue in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, from South Carolina to North Carolina and on upward into the Jersey Coast.
Hermine will likely become a non-tropical low by this weekend and will hover near or off the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast seaboard, potentially resulting in strong winds and moderate to major coastal flooding. For the forecast in the northeast, see our Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Forecast and Impact article.
A tropical storm watch is now in effect as far north as coastal parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut since the low will still have significant impacts. For more details on what will happen in the Northeast, click the link below for our separate forecast.
(MORE: Georgia/Carolina Impacts  | Hermine's Impacts on East Coast Tourism )

Watches and Warnings

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Current Status

Tropical Storm Hermine was centered about 30 miles west-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina, as of Friday evening.

Current Storm Information

Hermine made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane just east of St. Marks, Florida, at 1:30 a.m. EDT Friday. Hermine was the state's first hurricane landfall since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Wind gusts over 40 mph (occasionally 50 mph) continue in parts of the Carolinas, spreading into Virgnia. Here are some of the top wind gust reports from Hermine, so far:

• 79 mph was reported at an elevation of 115 feet south of Apalachicola with sustained winds of 61 mph late Thursday
• 76 mph at C-Tower, south of St. George Island, Thursday evening
• 75 mph early Thursday evening near Indian Shores Beach in western Pinellas County
• 67 mph in Keaton Beach, Florida
• 64 mph gusts were reported at Florida State University's football stadium in Tallahassee  
• 62 mph at St. Petersburg's Albert Whitted Airport and near Clearwater Beach on Thursday evening.
• 59 mph near Folly Island, South Carolina on Friday evening.
• 58 mph near Dewees Island, South Carolina with sustained winds of 40 mph on Friday afternoon.
• 54 mph at Shaw Air Force Base. 
• 53 mph in Apalachicola, Florida on Thursday evening and in Brunswick, Georgia on Friday afternoon. 
• 52 mph occurred at Clearwater Beach later Thursday evening, and a 51 mph gust was measured at Cedar Key.
• 49 mph in Charleston, South Carolina on Friday evening. 

(INTERACTIVE: Storm Reports Map)

Current Winds, Gusts

A broad area of heavy rain is impacting a swath from North Carolina into southeastern Virginia as Hermine temporarily races northeast.
The top rainfall total associated with Hermine so far is 22.36 inches at Lake Tarpon Canal, Florida, and 18.89 inches near Baskin, Florida. Both of those locations are in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area where heavy rain fell in the days prior to Hermine's landfall.
Rainfall totals in parts of southern Georgia and the Carolinas have topped 6 inches in some areas. Rain reports include Alma, Georgia (6.37 inches) Valdosta, Georgia (5.47 inches), Sunset Beach, North Carolina (6.31 inches), and Surfside Beach, South Carolina (7.68 inches)
(INTERACTIVE MAP: Where the Heavy Rain is Now)

Radar, Watches, and Warnings

Forecast Track/Intensity

As the NHC forecast path shows, Hermine will continue accelerating northeast on a path through the North Carolina low country and into the Atlantic through early Saturday.

Projected Path

Late Saturday into Sunday, Hermine will move to a position off the mid-Atlantic coastline and will transition into a non-tropical or hybrid low pressure system. That area of low pressure will begin to strengthen late Saturday and then bring a variety of coastal impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend.

Impacts

Storm Surge

At Cedar Key, Florida, water levels were as high as six feet above MHHW (Mean Higher High Water) near midnight Friday.
The Perry, Florida, police department is reporting severe damage along the Taylor County coastline from storm surge. This is located just north of Cedar Key.
(MAP: NHC Storm Surge Potential Forecast | Prototype NHC Storm Surge Watch/Warning)
Dangerous surf, beach erosion and some water rise is also expected from the Southeast coast to the Virginia Tidewater and into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic.
Here are times of high and low tides closest in time to the nearest pass of strongest onshore winds.

Charleston, South Carolina	10:03 a.m. Sat. - high	4:09 p.m. Sat - low
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina	9:22 a.m. Sat. - high	3:30 p.m. Sat. - low

Rainfall Flooding

The threat of heavy rainfall is not a function of tropical cyclone intensity, but rather the system's slow movement and availability of deep, tropical moisture, as we saw with an unnamed system earlier this month triggering Louisiana's epic flooding.
Fortunately, Hermine will continue to accelerate to the northeast. That faster forward motion will mitigate the heavy rain threat somewhat.
A slug of heavy rain should also continue to push northeast across eastern North Carolina through at least early Saturday. Many locations look primed to pick up 4 to 8 inches of total rainfall. These totals are expected to spread into the Delmarva and New Jersey coasts through the weekend.
In addition, 3-5 inches of additional rainfall is possible across north Florida into early Saturday

Rainfall Outlook Through Sunday

Of course, where bands of heavy rain stall, over 3 inches of rain could fall in an hour or so, leading to serious flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.
(MORE: Rainfall Flood Concern for Saturated Gulf Coast)

Winds

Tropical-storm-force winds will continue and spread northeast into the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia into early Saturday.

Chance of Tropical Storm-Force Winds

In general, these winds may cause additional tree damage and power outages. Trees in soil dampened from heavy rainfall are particularly susceptible to be downed by high winds.

Tornado Threat

As with most landfalling tropical cyclones, there is a threat of tornadoes and waterspouts embedded in rainbands. This threat will become more limited on Saturday, and should be mainly confined to extreme eastern North Carolina and the coastal waters.
An estimated 12-15 structures were damaged by a possible tornado in Skidaway Island, Georgia, Friday morning.
(MORE: Hurricanes That Produced the Most Tornadoes)

Storm History

We first began tracking this system when it was known as an "Invest", an area highlighted by the National Hurricane Center for possible development, just off the west coast of Africa on August 18.
Known as "Invest-99L", this tropical wave made the long journey to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Bahamas without developing into a tropical cyclone, thanks to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and interaction with land.

Hermine's History

Despite that, it soaked parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas and Cuba.
More than 1,700 people were displaced from their homes in the Dominican Republic due to heavy rainfall.
Santa Lucia, Cuba picked up a whopping 12.50 inches (317.4 millimeters) of rain in 36 hours ending at 8 a.m. EDT on August 30, according to Weather Underground's director of meteorology, Dr. Jeff Masters.
Hermine finally earned its name as a tropical storm on August 31 after data collected by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system was producing tropical storm-force winds.
Heavy rain well ahead of Hermine then soaked parts of western Florida on August 31, triggering widespread street flooding.
Sarasota, Florida, set a new calendar-day record for any August day, picking up 7.76 inches on August 31, crushing the previous record of 5.90 inches from August 14, 1928.
Gainesville, Florida set a daily rainfall record for September 1. The city received 1.94 inches, breaking the old record of 1.60 inches, a record that has stood since 1969.

MORE: Hermine Impacts