Tropical Depression Chaba a Typhoon Threat to Okinawa, Japan Next Week

Jon Erdman
Published: September 28,2016
Tropical Depression Chaba is presently brushing Guam, but its future as a typhoon could pose a threat to parts of Japan next week.
According to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Chaba's rather ragged center is currently just over 150 miles west-northwest Guam.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image

Chaba is currently experiencing wind shear, which is blowing convection away from its center of circulation.
Regardless, areas of heavy rain may persist in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands through Thursday evening.
(FORECAST: Guam)
It may then take some time for the environment to become more conducive for strengthening, but nonetheless, Chaba should become a typhoon by this weekend.
Then, it becomes a question of how sharp a recurve – a turn toward the northwest, north, then northeast – Chaba takes this weekend and early next week.
The sharper and sooner the recurve, the less of a threat to Japan. The weaker and/or later a recurve, the more of a Japan threat.
(RECAP: Typhoon Malakas)

Forecast Path: Chaba

For now, the forecast path is quite uncertain, something not unusual with a forecast several days out.
If it doesn't recurve fast enough, it may pose a threat to Okinawa in the Sunday/Monday timeframe and southern Japan Monday into Tuesday.
(FORECASTS: Kadena AB | Tokyo)
Furthermore, there's a chance, as is frequently the case, for Chaba to undergo a period of rapid intensification before potentially threatening parts of Japan.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: The Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones)
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system.
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