Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Megi Weakening Over China After Blasting Taiwan with Wind Gusts Over 120 MPH, 30+ Inches of Rain

Tom Moore and Jonathan Erdman
Published: September 27,2016
Typhoon Megi made its final landfall in southeast China, near Quanzhou, early Wednesday morning, local time, at Category 1 strength, after clobbering Taiwan with torrential rain and wind gusts well over 100 mph.
(LATEST NEWS: Almost 3 Million Lose Power in Taiwan)
According to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Megi's 35 mile-wide eye came ashore in northeast Taiwan's Hualien County around 1 p.m. local time - or 1 a.m. U.S. EDT, Tuesday, Sept. 27.
JTWC estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 115 knots or roughly 130 mph, the equivalent of a Category 4 tropical cyclone.
(WATCH: High-Resolution Satellite Loop of Landfall from NWS/OPC)
Typhoon Megi makes landfall in northeast Taiwan at 1 p.m. local time on September 27, 2016, as the equivalent of a Category 4 storm.
Contrast that view of Megi's eyewall from typhoon chaser James Reynolds with the view from fellow chaser Josh Morgerman from the eye of Megi.
Megi is the third typhoon to either landfall or brush Taiwan in less than two week's time, after Malakas passed to the east of the island about 10 days ago, and Meranti hammered the island three days prior to Malakas.
(RECAPS: Malakas | Meranti)

Current Storm Status
Tuesday alone, Taipingshan, in Datong Township, had measured over 3 feet of rain, more than the average annual precipitation in Chicago. Several other locations in Taiwan picked up over two feet of rain Tuesday, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB).
Rain was falling at the rate of over 3 inches per hour Tuesday.
View image on Twitter
Jonathan Erdman ✔ @wxjerdman
Peak rainfall total over 3 feet (945mm ~ 37.20") Tue. alone at Taipingshan. 4 other locations with > 2' of rain today alone.

Wind gusts clocked as high as 124 mph at Wuqi on Tuesday, according to CWB. Some other notable peak gusts include:
  • Pengjiayu: 105 mph
  • Taoyuan Int'l Airport, Taipei: 99 mph (with peak sustained wind of 71 mph)
  • Songshan Int'l Airport, Taipei: 98 mph
  • Taichung: 73 mph 
(MORE: Typhoon Alley...The Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones)

Current Winds, Gusts

Forecast

Additional bands of heavy rain may continue to plague parts of Taiwan into Wednesday afternoon, local time, even though Megi's center is over China, producing another several inches of rain in some spots, particularly over the mountains.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Downed trees, power outages, structural damage, particularly to poorly-constructed buildings, coastal flooding and battering waves will gradually wind down Wednesday afternoon.
(FORECAST: Taipei)

Rainfall Outlook Through Friday
Life-threatening, destructive flash flooding and landslides are likely in prone areas of Taiwan's mountains, particularly considering saturated ground from the soaking provided by Meranti, then Malakas one to two weeks ago.
Megi's circulation will continue to weaken over southeast China, to the northeast of Hong Kong, through Wednesday.


Projected Path and Intensity

Additional heavy rainfall, with a threat of flash flooding, will impact southeast China over the next day or so.
(FORECAST: Hong Kong)
As mentioned earlier, Megi is the fourth typhoon to either brush or make landfall in Taiwan this season, and third to do so in the past two weeks.
Typhoons to either landfall or brush Taiwan in 2016 through September 21, along with dates of their closest approach and intensities.
According to the CWB, 3 to 4 typhoons make landfall or pass close enough to trigger significant impacts on Taiwan each year, on average. August, July, and September, in that order, are the most likely months for typhoons, there.
As many as seven typhoons have struck Taiwan in four separate years, most recently in 2001, according to the CWB.
This past weekend, Megi rapidly intensified with wind speeds increasing from a 50 mph tropical storm to a 105 mph typhoon in just 24 hours.
Monday, Megi replaced its eyewall, something common in stronger tropical cyclones, which could be seen from Taiwan's CWB radar on September 26.
View image on Twitter
Jonathan Erdman ✔ @wxjerdman
Outer rainbands of nearing . Eye showing up on CWB radar. http://bit.ly/29vWMzz 

Following that eyewall replacement cycle, Megi reintensified to a Category 4 equivalent storm prior to its Taiwan landfall. 
MORE: Typhoon Meranti- September 2016
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