Tropical Storm Chaba a Typhoon Threat to Okinawa, Japan Next Week

Jon Erdman
Published: September 29,2016
Tropical Storm Chaba, now well west of Guam, will pose a typhoon threat to parts of Japan next week.
According to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Chaba's center is currently over 400 miles west of Guam.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image

Chaba is now experiencing less wind shear than its time near Guam, allowing it to slowly gain strength, and it should become a typhoon by Saturday.
Then it becomes a question of how sharp a recurve – a turn toward the northwest, north, then northeast – Chaba takes this weekend and early next week.
The sharper and sooner the recurve, the less of a threat to Japan. The weaker and/or later a recurve, the more of a Japan threat.
(RECAP: Typhoon Malakas)

Forecast Path: Chaba

For now, the forecast path is quite uncertain, something not unusual with a forecast several days out.
If it doesn't recurve fast enough, it may pose a threat to Okinawa in the late Sunday/Monday timeframe and southern Japan Tuesday into Wednesday.
(FORECASTS: Kadena AB | Tokyo)
Furthermore, there's a chance, as is frequently the case, for Chaba to undergo a period of rapid intensification before potentially threatening parts of Japan.
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: The Planet's Most Intense Tropical Cyclones)
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system.
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