Monday, September 26, 2016

Tropical storm likely to form in Caribbean later this week

By , Senior Meteorologist
September 26,2016; 11:45PM,EDT
 
 
A tropical wave is likely to become the Atlantic Basin's next tropical storm as it approaches or enters the Caribbean Sea later this week.
On the heels of Karl and Lisa, a robust tropical wave is moving westward across the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
Into the middle of this week, development into a tropical depression or storm is low due to the swift forward speed of the tropical wave.
However, that will likely change during the middle and latter part of the week.

"As the wave approaches the Windward Islands, the steering currents and wind shear will decrease," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Doll said.
Wind shear is a rapid change in direction and speed over different layers of the atmosphere. When wind shear is strong it can prevent tropical storm formation or cause an organized tropical storm to weaken.
"This will present an opportunity for organization into a tropical depression or perhaps a tropical storm as early as Wednesday," Doll said.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name "Matthew."
RELATED:
Typhoon Megi to slam into Taiwan and eastern China by midweek
Top 5 US cities most vulnerable to hurricanes
AccuWeather hurricane center

Regardless of development, AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister anticipates the wave to bring enhanced rainfall to the Lesser Antilles at midweek.
"Conditions will deteriorate across the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday as the fast-moving wave arrives," he said. "The heaviest rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands."
Leister anticipates the downpours to spread to Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire on Thursday.

"While intensity is not certain, there will be enhanced rainfall across the islands with the threat for flash flooding," Leister said.
Gusty winds and rough seas will increase as the wave approaches. If the system strengthens, conditions could become dangerous for small craft and bathers.

Several factors will determine if the wave will strengthens as it impacts the islands and northern coast of South America later this week. Another zone of wind shear and/or interaction with land in Venezuela could make it difficult for the wave to intensify.
The environment could become more conducive for strengthening this weekend and early next week if the wave continues its journey into the western Caribbean or makes a turn north of Hispaniola and Cuba.

No comments:

Post a Comment