The Next Atlantic Named Storm Could Be Coming Soon

Tom Moore
Published: September 9,2016
A strong tropical wave well west of the Cabo Verde Islands is disorganized but it could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center has designated this as Invest 94L. They indicate that this system a high chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.
(MORE: When Atlantic Season Peak Arrives)

Invest 94L

Right Now: Invest 94L Unlikely To Develop Right Away

For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection, or thunderstorm activity, near a surface low-pressure circulation. For the next couple of days, this tropical wave has a very low chance for development due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
A weak trough (southward dip in the jet stream)  is creating just enough wind shear to hinder development of low pressure at the surface and for persistent convection to be maintained.
(MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important During the Hurricane Season)
There are also some pockets of dry air in the eastern Atlantic that could hinder development in the short term, though much less so than in recent weeks.
For the next couple of days, we will be tracking this as a tropical wave, and development into a tropical cyclone is not expected.

Eastern Atlantic Satellite /Wind Shear

This Weekend: More Favorable Conditions ?

Computer model trends indicate that the tropical wave should continue in a general west to west-northwest trajectory over the next several days.
If the aforementioned upper trough can stay out of the tropical wave's way and instead work to produce rising air and, thus, thunderstorms over the tropical disturbance, rather than hostile wind shear, this disturbance could develop into a tropical cyclone next week. it remains to be seen how much more favorable conditions become over the weekend.
That being said, this system poses no threat to any land masses through the weekend. It could turn harmlessly into the open waters of the Atlantic over time, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
(MORE: Record Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Drought)

Invest 93L : Unfavorable Area For Development

Invest 93L

An area of disorganized thunderstorm activity extends about 200 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has designated this as Invest 93L. With surface pressures high and some wind shear around, this system is not expected to develop over the next few days.
Rain and thunderstorms are likely, however, around the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as we move into the weekend.
(MORE: Fall Outlook Update)
This time of year, tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, line up over Africa, south of the Sahara Desert, and emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic Basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.
Regardless of whether these systems become a threat, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names