Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Flooding Threaten the Midwest, Northeast through Saturday

Brian Donegan
Published: September 9,2016
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail, will set up over portions of the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Friday.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch valid until 2 a.m. EDT for west-central Indiana. This watch area includes Indianapolis, Indiana. 
(MORE: Confirmed Tornadoes in Midwest Friday Evening) 
In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding is also a concern because any storms that form will have plenty of moisture to work with, due to a southerly wind flow off the Gulf of Mexico, so excessive rain amounts are possible within a short period of time.
By Saturday, the threat for severe thunderstorms will move eastward into the eastern Great Lakes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Friday.

Severe Weather Forecast

Friday

• Forecast: Severe storms and heavy rain will be possible from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
• Threats: Damaging winds, hail and flash flooding.
• Cities: Indianapolis | Kansas City | St. Louis | Des Moines

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Saturday

• Forecast: Severe storms will be possible from the eastern Great Lakes down into the upper Ohio River Valley.
• Threats: Damaging winds and hail.
• Cities: Buffalo, New York | Cleveland, Ohio | Bowling Green, Kentucky

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Flash Flood Threat

Heavy rain and flash flooding will still be an issue through Saturday morning. More areas of locally heavy rain are possible across the mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
Due to this, flash flooding is a serious concern.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday Morning

An additional broad swath of 1- to 3-inch rain amounts is expected across parts of the northern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest into Saturday morning, with isolated areas seeing upwards of 3 to 5 inches. Keep in mind, a lot of this rain may fall in a short period of time, hence the risk of flash flooding.
The heaviest rain looks to set up over parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.
Although there is plenty of moisture lingering across these areas, rainfall will be enhanced by more moisture moving into parts of the Midwest from the southwestern U.S., thanks to Newton.

Severe Weather Setup

As a cold front pushes eastward across the Midwest, rounds of thunderstorms will pop up out ahead of it, especially during the "heating of the day."
This cold front will interact with a strong low-level jet, or river of fast moving air just above the surface, as well as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.

Severe setup for Saturday

The interaction of the cold front and low-level jet will provide the necessary ingredients to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The warm, moist air from the Gulf and Atlantic will provide plenty of moisture for the storms to work with, creating a risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Snapped An Awesome Shot? Share Your Photo!

If you crave pictures of severe weather, you've found your home here. Upload your photos or video (taking care to only take photos and videos from a safe location) to us and share your experience!
(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)

PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding