Parts of the South that were inundated with historic flooding this past week are in for another round of thunderstorms, some of which will be severe, Sunday afternoon and evening. This threat includes large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes in Arkansas and adjacent parts of eastern Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, northwest Mississippi and west Tennessee.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch is in effect until 2 a.m. CDT for much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northwest Mississippi and northwest Tennessee. This watch area includes Little Rock and Memphis.
Latest Radar
As of Sunday evening, there has been a report of a brief rope tornado near Dierks, Arkansas. Another rope tornado was also spotted near Strong, Arkansas in the New London community. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was observed near Jessieville, Arkansas and baseball size hail was spotted in Mount Ida, Arkansas. Flooding, with a report of a water rescue, also was reported on Sunday evening in Springfield, Missouri.
Fortunately for the region, the storm system projected to roll through late this weekend will be fast-moving. However, we cannot rule out some additional, isolated flash flooding, particularly with any locally heavy rain that affects portions of Arkansas, one of the hardest hit states from the recent deluge.
(MORE: Historic Flooding Slams South)
Into next week, another dip in the jet stream is likely to result in a storm system developing across the central U.S., that may also produce strong to severe thunderstorms in the midweek time-frame.
Below is a breakdown of what can be expected in the days ahead.
Severe Weather Forecast
Sunday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast
- Low pressure swings across the southern Plains, while modestly warm, moist air flows northward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
- In the afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms will flare up from eastern Oklahoma across parts of Arkansas and far northern Louisiana.
- Large hail is expected with the strongest supercells and a few tornadoes are possible, mainly across southern/central Arkansas. A strong tornado (EF2 or higher rating) is not out of the question.
- Cities: Tulsa | Fort Smith | Little Rock
- Thunderstorms move east into the evening, possibly merging into a small squall line.
- Locally heavy rain and gusty winds may occur from Arkansas into southwestern Tennessee and western to northern Mississippi. The threat for some large hail and an isolated tornado will also continue.
- Due to the saturated soil, the risk for downed trees is higher in the Ark-la-miss region, as was seen in Hamburg, Arkansas, Friday.
- Cities: Greenville, Mississippi | Jonesboro, Arkansas | Memphis, Tennessee
- Though weakening, the same upper disturbance responsible for Sunday's severe thunderstorms will sweep into the East.
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to fire up in parts of Virginia and North Carolina in the afternoon and evening.
- Some large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible, though no widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time.
- Low pressure develops over the Plains, then moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- A severe thunderstorm threat may target parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
- Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be possible. The chance of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
- Cities: Chicago | Cincinnati | Indianapolis
Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
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