Flooding rainfall to target northern India and Pakistan into next week

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

March 11,2016; 9:03PM,EST

 

 

Heavy rain will fall across northern Pakistan and far northern India this weekend, heightening the risk for flash flooding and mudslides.
The areas hardest hit will include Lahore and Islamabad in Pakistan and Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and western Jammu and Kashmir in India.
Total rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) is expected with local amounts up to 200 mm (8 inches) through Sunday.

Isolated storms may also develop around Karachi this weekend, though this rain will be isolated with most of southern Pakistan remaining dry.
While the threat for rainfall will be minimal in southern Pakistan and Afghanistan on Sunday, another storm approaching from the west will continue the threat for downpours and flooding in northern parts of the both countries into Monday.
A third storm will then target areas from northern Afghanistan into northern India with additional heavy rainfall during the second half of next week. Rainfall from this storm in addition to the previous storms could lead to widespread flooding throughout the region.

Heavy rainfall triggers mudslides near Fujairah as this storm impacted U.A.E.

While far northern India experiences heavy rainfall and flooding, areas farther south from Rajasthan to northern Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal will receive more beneficial rain.
The greatest threat for showers and thunderstorms in New Delhi and Lucknow will be Saturday and Sunday before shifting farther south and east next week. Thunderstorms can produce downpours briefly slowing travel; however, no widespread flooding problems are expected.
Moisture from the Arabian Sea will be pulled northeast across India causing scattered showers and thunderstorms from Hyderabad north to Patna and Kolkata. While rainfall is not expected every day in each location, there will be rainfall each day across central and northeastern India.
Rainfall will be very isolated around Hyderabad and become more widespread farther northeast across Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand. Rainfall will generally be less than 12 mm (0.50 of an inch); however, localized amounts over 25 mm (1.00 inch) are possible.
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This rainfall will be largely beneficial following below normal totals during the 2015 monsoon season and a drier-than-normal winter.
"Winter wheat is heading toward maturation and harvest, so these rains should prove beneficial for immature crops," Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Around Kolkata, thunderstorms will be isolated, however the best chance for a storm will be from late Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Rainfall is not common in Kolkata during the month of March with only two or three days of rainfall on average and normal rainfall of 33 mm (1.30 inches).