Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Vance Weakens, Still a Danger to Mexico

By , Senior Meteorologist
November 4,2014; 5:47PM,EDT
 
 
Vance weakened into a tropical storm on Tuesday, but still poses a threat to Mexico as it continues on a path toward western Mexico.
Vance intensified to a hurricane Sunday morning as the tropical cyclone passed over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific and in an environment that lacks disruptive wind shear, which can shred apart tropical systems.
Vance has since encounter more shear which has weakened the storm and will continue to do so over the next 24 hours.
The Mexican states of southern Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Chihuahua, and Durango remain on alert for impacts from Vance through Wednesday.

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Rainfall has already begun across Sinaloa, Baja California and Nayarit, but the heaviest rain will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rainfall totals of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) will occur across Sinaloa, Nayarit and Durango with amounts exceeding 300 mm (12 inches) in the mountains. These are the areas most likely to experience flash flooding and mudslides.
Cabo San Lucas, Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta lie within the zone of greatest risk from Vance.

While Vance will be past its peak intensity and rapidly weakening when it approaches Mexico, it will still bring a danger of flooding rain, mudslides and pounding surf.
The latest track of Vance brings it onshore Wednesday as a tropical rainstorm. As a result, damaging winds are not expected outside of localized gusts within thunderstorms.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center
Mexico Satellite Map

Despite Vance remaining to the north, Manzanillo will still face rough surf and potential downpours.
The impacts from Vance will not stop when it moves into Mexico. Vance's heavy rain will get drawn across northern Mexico and into Texas during the middle of the week as a cold front pushes through the region.
All residents and visitors in western Mexico should continue to check back with AccuWeather.com as Vance takes shape and more precise details on its impacts unfold.
Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story.

On Social Media
InterestingTech
InterestingTech
#tech Aqua satellite sees Hurricane Vance headed for landfall in western Mexico wp.me/p17B8w-WDf
Sandhya Patel
SandhyaABC7
Tropical Storm Vance dumping heavy rain on W. Mexico. It's weakening but has eye on Mazatlan. Flooding possible. pic.twitter.com/ZSux3cArDn
Ten Spider Weather
tenspider_wx
#hurricane #Mexico: 1000 PST 4 Nov 14 NHC 5-Day Cone (image), Tropical Storm Vance. bit.ly/cyclone-tracki… #Vance #21E
8h
 

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