Tropical Update: Vance Fizzles; Nuri Transitions in the Pacific

Stu Ostro
Published: November 5,2014


 
- Vance made landfall as Tropical Depression this morning on the Pacific side of Mexico
- Nuri in the western Pacific beginning its metamorphosis into a powerful non-tropical storm
- Development unlikely with low pressure north of Puerto Rico
With the end of the hurricane season just a few weeks away and no significant disturbances on the horizon, this will be the last regularly scheduled Tropical Update of the year. Special TROSUMs will be issued only if disturbances have a high risk of development or pose a threat to U.S. interests.

EASTERN PACIFIC: VANCE

Remarkably Vance became only the third tropical cyclone to make landfall this year in one of the busiest eastern Pacific hurricane seasons on record (Hurricane Odile and Tropical Storm Trudy being the others).
There are still 3 weeks left in the hurricane season, but IF no additional named storms form, this year would tie 1990 as the fourth most active season on record in terms of named storms. Here are the top four busiest years in the eastern Pacific:
1. 1992 - 24 named storms
2. 1985 - 22 named storms
3. 1983 - 21 named storms
4. 2014 - 20 named storms
4. 1990 - 20 named storms
Vance was a shell of its former self when it made landfall earlier this morning as a Tropical Depression on the Pacific side of Mexico. The circulation has since dissipated over western Mexico but Vance's leftover moisture higher up in the atmosphere should continue to stream northward across the border over the next day or two, helping to enhance already heavy rainfall across parts of eastern Texas.
(RECAP: Vance)

WESTERN PACIFIC: NURI

Nuri has begun its transition into a powerful non-tropical storm about 500 miles east of Japan. The typhoon still has estimated winds of 85 mph but is now caught in the much faster flow at higher latitudes. By late Friday into early Saturday eastern time Nuri is expected to have traveled some 2500 miles into the Bering Sea where some weather models are showing an incredible storm system, one of the strongest ever recorded for this part of the world.
Thankfully there aren't too many people living in the Aleutian Islands but for those in its path, it will be a wicked weather system. Wave models are forecasting a large swath of 40-50 foot waves, with individual waves possibly topping 80-100 feet.
(FORECAST: Nuri)

ATLANTIC BASIN

A broad area of low pressure (designated Invest 97L) has formed north of Puerto Rico but so far there's been little organization to the nearby thunderstorms.
The low pressure has about 24 hours to develop into something more, after which time it will be absorbed by an advancing cold front. Upper winds are expected to stay hostile in the interim so development is unlikely.
REAL-TIME UPDATES
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(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)