November 4,2014; 5:52PM,EDT
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area of disturbed weather located north of Puerto Rico.
The front and the disturbance have been producing locally drenching rain the past couple of days in parts of the British and United States Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico and part of Hispaniola.
Locally heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding and mudslides will continue in these areas through the middle of the week.
This satellite photo loop is centered on an area of disturbed weather near the northeastern Caribbean Sea. (NOAA/Animated gif)According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert, Dan Kottlowski, "This system will have a very difficult time becoming a well organized feature due to the hostile environment it will track through."
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Ocean waters are still marginally warm, but the moderately strong westerly winds in the area will act against any rapid intensification.
Later this week, the disturbance will pass near Bermuda. These islands were rocked by Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo earlier this fall. This system will not pack the punch that those storms did.
Rainfall will be the main impact to Bermuda, with any wind gusts remaining well below tropical storm strength. Rain is forecast to move in Wednesday night and persist through the rest of the week. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Thursday into Friday. A few inches of rain will fall before the system is swept away by an approaching front from the west.
The frequency of storms typically declines through the month of November. Tropical systems will tend to be few and far between this month in the Atlantic.
During November, ocean water temperatures are cooling down and disruptive upper-level winds are increasing. These two key factors play heavily into increasingly poor environmental conditions for tropical development.
This story was authored by AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky Elliott.
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