Record-Breaking November Arctic Cold: Get Ready for Round Two

By Jon Erdman
Published: November 16,2014


 
 
A second push of bitterly cold air will blast its way south and east over the next couple of days, bringing an extremely cold start to the workweek for millions of Americans who have already endured nearly a week of January-like chill.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Winter Storm Central)

Forecast High-lights:

Highs in the teens and 20s will dominate the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes all week, resulting in what could be one of the longest sub-freezing spells on record for the month of November in parts of that region. Subfreezing highs may reach as far south as Tennessee and western North Carolina on Tuesday.
(FORECAST: Daily Highs Maps)
Daytime highs in the 30s and 40s will prevail in the Southern Plains on Monday, then shift east into the Southeast on Tuesday -- potentially including coastal cities such as Mobile, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina.
These daily high temperatures will, in many cases, be colder than average January highs, let alone mid-November.
(MORE: What's the Coldest Day of Winter?)

Forecast Low-lights

Spotty subzero lows are possible in parts of the Rockies and Upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday mornings. After a brief reprieve Wednesday morning, we expect more subzero morning lows Thursday and Friday with a third shot of bitter cold in the Dakotas and Minnesota.
(FORECAST: Daily Lows Maps)
Lows in the single-digits and teens are expected pretty much everywhere north of Interstate 40 between the east slopes of the Rockies and the west slopes of the Appalachians on Monday and Tuesday mornings. The morning chill will begin to subside a bit later in the week for areas between roughly Interstate 40 and Interstate 70, but it will continue to be quite cold farther north.
Lows in the 20s will plunge deep into the South, including parts of northern Florida. Freezing temperatures could reach as far south as Ocala, Florida, by Wednesday morning. There could be patchy frost as far south as the suburbs of Tampa and Orlando by that time, as lows could reach the mid 30s.

How Long Will This Last?

Above is a European model forecast loop from a few days ago depicting where the coldest air will be.
With blocking high pressure aloft over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada, a direct pipeline of cold air will come from Siberia to near the North Pole, then southward into Canada and the U.S., particularly the Plains and Midwest. While not nearly as cold in magnitude, the arctic surges will also sweep into parts of the East.
This is a classic Arctic outbreak pattern that will remain largely locked in over these areas this week.
Here is the general forecast timing of each arctic cold surge, and when the coldest air may ease:
- First arctic surge: Spread into the East last week (November 11-15).
- Second arctic surge: Plunged into the High Plains and Rockies this weekend and reaches the East Coast and Deep South by Tuesday. For parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Middle Atlantic States, this could be the coldest of the surges with numerous daily record lows threatened.
- Third arctic surge: Reaches the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, but does not press as far south as the first and second surges did.
- Cold relief: A brief surge of mild air will blanket the East Coast on Monday (Nov. 17) ahead of the next arctic surge. Potentially more long-lasting relief begins in the Rockies and Southern Plains Tuesday, then expands into the Southeast later in the week and eventually into the Midwest and Northeast by Saturday, Nov. 22.
Forecast highs in the Twin Cities will be stuck in the teens and 20s through much of this week. This will rival the longest November subfreezing streaks on record there (see graphic at right). Some of those days will see daytime highs colder than their climatologically coldest average highs in January (23 degrees).
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago has only seen six other stretches below 40 degrees so early in the season, last occurring from Nov. 11-17, 1997. The Windy City may not see 40 degrees until next weekend.
After highs topped out near 80 degrees in Dallas Monday, highs into at least the middle of the week will do no better than the 50s. In fact, a few days may not see highs get out of the 40s, there. For reference, average highs in Dallas during the coldest time of year (late December into early January) are in the mid-50s.
Oklahoma City may not see the 50-degree mark until sometime late in the week, after soaring to 80 degrees last Monday. Their average high in early January is 49 degrees.
Given this cold air in place, we will keep a close eye on any jet stream disturbance rippling through. Each has the potential to produce snow, sleet or freezing rain.
(FORECAST: Winter Storm Bozeman)

Cold Notables So Far

- Burlington, Colorado, on the eastern Plains near the Kansas border, dipped to -10 Thursday, setting a new record low for the month of November.
- Casper, Wyoming, dipped to -27 at 11:59 p.m. Wednesday night, shattering their all-time November record low of -21 on Nov. 23, 1985 (records date to 1939). The temperature stayed at -27 at midnight Thursday, making it the new record low for Nov. 13 as well. Previously, the soonest Casper plunged to -27 was on Dec. 5, 1972. Casper's high of 6 on Nov. 11 was the record earliest single-digit or colder high temperature there. (On Nov. 15, 1955, the high was only -3 degrees). Wednesday, Casper only managed a high of 3 degrees!
- Denver's high of 6 on Nov. 12 was the coldest daily high so early in the season. Only three other November days had daily high temperatures colder in Denver, dating to 1872. Early Thursday morning, Denver chalked up a bone-chilling -14 degrees, easily the coldest temperature so early in the season. (Nov. 17, 1880 was the previous earliest such cold reading in Denver.)
- Livingston, Montana, dipped to minus 21 Wednesday, their coldest so early in the season. That said, they once dipped to minus 31 degrees just one day later in the calendar, on November 13, 1959.
- In the Southern Plains, Amarillo (21), Lubbock (27),  Childress (29) and Goodland (14) all set their coldest daily high temperatures on record for so early in the season on Wednesday.
- Riverton, Wyoming had a daytime high of 0 degrees Thursday.
- Redmond, Oregon, dropped to 19 degrees below zero Sunday morning, crushing its all-time record low for the month of November, previously 14 below zero on Nov. 15, 1955. Sunday's low was an astonishing 23 degrees colder than the previous daily record for Nov. 16 in Redmond.
(MORE: 12 Stunning Images of This Arctic Blast)