WeatherFanatics: Mississippi River Rising as Plains Face Severe Storms

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Mississippi River Rising as Plains Face Severe Storms

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

June 22,2014; 9:34PM,EDT

Round after round of thunderstorm complexes have not only put a dent in long-term drought in parts of the Plains but also have the upper Mississippi River on the rise.
Rainfall between two and three times that of normal has fallen on portions of the northern and central Plains so far this June with near normal to double the average rainfall for the month in many areas farther south. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the coming week.
A large portion of the central and northern Plains will finish June with over a foot of rain.
Some of the rain will come at the hands of severe thunderstorms with some threatening communities across the Plains to close out the weekend.

Severe weather will continue to target places across eastern and southern Iowa and neighboring parts of Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri through Sunday evening. In addition to the downpours, the strongest thunderstorms will produce damaging winds.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail will also track across Kansas, Oklahoma, eastern Colorado and along the border of New Mexico and Texas through Sunday night. Cities in this zone include Denver, Wichita, Kansas and Amarillo, Texas.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The worst of the severe thunderstorms through the end of the weekend will bypass the recently hard-hit areas of southern Minnesota, including Minneapolis, and northwestern Iowa.
On Monday, the severe weather danger will stretch from southern Wisconsin to Oklahoma and northern Texas.

The greatest amount of rain through Monday will focus across Kansas and Oklahoma, where an average of 2 to 3 inches is likely and the ground will absorb much of the water.
Since much of the rainfall will be concentrated to a several-hour period during thunderstorms into Monday, there is a risk of flash and urban flooding no matter what the drought status may be.

The latest Drought Monitor continues to show large areas of extreme conditions over the southern Plains.
However, localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches of rain can fall over saturated areas of eastern Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, where much of the rain will run off into streams and rivers.

The Situation on the Mississippi River

Enough rain has and will fall on tributaries of the upper Mississippi River to continue to cause the waterway to rise into this week.
Hydrologists with the National Weather Service are projecting the Mississippi to reach major flood stage at St. Paul, Minnesota, during much of the coming week and similar levels at Burlington, Iowa, during late June.
Mississippi River levels will continue to rise during late June into early July farther downstream at Quincy, Illinois, and eventually St. Louis but lock and dam operations will significantly mitigate these levels.
Low-lying areas not protected by levees, such as farmland, waterfront properties and some roadways, will be inundated once river levels surpass flood stage.
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Heavy rainfall over the past couple of weeks has pushed the Big Sioux and Little Sioux rivers out of their banks in Iowa.
At Akron, Iowa, the Big Sioux River crested at a record 25.58 feet on Wednesday. The Little Sioux River at Linn Grove, Iowa, nearly equaled a record high level on Wednesday.

Minor to moderate flooding is forecast along portions of the Red River (of the North) at Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota, as well as along portions of the Missouri River in Nebraska and Missouri.
No significant impact to barge traffic is expected from St. Louis on to the south at this time. However, if heavy rainfall continues over the central Plains and were to expand farther east over the Midwest, the situation could change in the weeks ahead.
As long as there is enough separation between individual complexes of thunderstorms farther east over the Midwest, water levels on the major rivers, such as the Ohio and lower Mississippi, should remain fairly stable or well within the operating range of barges.
AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski contributed to the content of this story.

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