Tropical Update: Watching Disturbance off Southeast U.S. and An Active Eastern Pacific

By: Stu Ostro
Published: June 29,2014


 

Atlantic Basin Satellite Image

• INTERACTIVE MAP

Area To Watch

Tropical Depression Four-E

Additional Area to Watch

• INTERACTIVE MAP

Western Pacific Basin Satellite Image

• INTERACTIVE SATELLITE

Quick Summary:

- System attempting to further organize in subtropical Atlantic offshore of southeast U.S. coast
- Not an immediate significant threat to land; details of ultimate outcome of development, track and effects t.b.d.
- Tropical Depression Four-E in eastern Pacific headed out to sea
- Monitoring another area in eastern Pacific

Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

The area of disturbed weather a couple hundred miles east of Jacksonville, FL (named Invest 91-L) has not become any better organized in the past 24 hours.
Transient thunderstorm activity is scattered on the southern periphery of the circulation. With persistent north(ish) winds aloft, and plenty of dry air at mid-levels nearby, there doesn't seem to be much of a chance for development soon.  In fact, many of the storms in the northern half of the circulation have evaporated thanks to the ill-suited surroundings.
Aircraft recon scheduled for today has been cancelled, and may not get tasked again for a another day or two.
Invest 91-L probably won't move a whole lot in the next two days, swirling around off the coast of Florida.
By mid-week, however, there are signs it will accelerate northeastward. It is by then (in 3-4 days) that some of the models develop it further, and move it on a coast-paralleling track. For this reason, 91-L needs to be monitored closely. Stay tuned.
(MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook | New NHC Storm Surge Maps in 2014)

Eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression Four-E which formed Saturday afternoon is expected to become Tropical Storm Douglas but is headed out to sea.
A disturbance to its east is also being monitored. It is closer to land and there's a chance of it continuing to track closer to the coast than the depression.
(MORE: Glossary of tropical terminology)

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Hurricane Igor is featured in this Sept. 14, 2010, image photographed by an Expedition 24 crew member on the International Space Station. (NASA)