WeatherFanatics: Cyclone Near Airliner Search, New Development Possible in Arafura Sea

Monday, April 21, 2014

Cyclone Near Airliner Search, New Development Possible in Arafura Sea

By Erik Pindrock, Meteorologist

April 21,2014; 9:12PM,EDT

A cluster of showers and storms over the South Indian Ocean organized into Tropical Cyclone Jack on Friday.
Jack remains over the open waters, and the cyclone is not expected to pose any serious threat to land as it tracks in a general southeasterly direction this week.
Water temperatures ranging from 27-29 C (80-84 F) and relatively low wind shear allowed Jack to strengthen to hurricane force over the weekend. However, as the storm continues southeast in the coming days, it will move over cooler waters and an environment of increased wind shear which will strip the cyclone of its tropical characteristics.
Clouds and showers, as well as rougher seas from Jack, will impact continuing search efforts for the missing Malaysian airliner through Tuesday.

Infrared Satellite imagery from Saturday night, local time, shows Tropical Cyclone Jack well west of Australia (via the Bureau of Meteorology)
The remnants of Jack will approach Western Australia late this week; however, any impacts to the state will be minimal and in the form of increased showers.
As Jack weakens during the upcoming week, attention will turn to the Arafura and Timor seas for continued unsettled weather and possible tropical development.
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms that has persisted over the weekend near Indonesia will drift southward this week with the possibility of a more focused area of lower pressure developing over the open Arafura Sea to the north of Northern Territory.
This area of unsettled weather has already produced 25-75 mm (1-3 in) of rain across southeast Indonesia as it drifted southward.

Satellite imagery from Monday night, local time, shows some convection across the Timor and Arafura seas, where slow development is possible this week. (via the Bureau of Meteorology)
Regardless of tropical development, squally weather will impact the northern portion of the Northern Territory as well as northern parts of the Cape York Peninsula much of this week. In general 50-100 mm (2-4 in) of rain can fall during this time, but higher amounts will be possible if development into an organized cyclone occurs.
Winds will generally be less than 65 kph (40 mph), but a few higher gusts caused by thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story.

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