T.S. Karen Edging Closer to Central U.S. Gulf Coast

UPDATED 7 PM CDT, October 4,2013

UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Fred Allen

 

 

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Even though Tropical Storm Karen is edging closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast this afternoon, it is doing so in a disorganized state. Karen will likely intensify a bit prior to reaching the Gulf Coast this weekend, but will fall short of becoming a minimal hurricane.

As of 7 p.m. CDT, a disorganized Tropical Storm Karen was located near 25.9 N and 90.3 W, or about 235 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 270 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, La. Its top sustained winds remain 50 mph, and it is stationary in the central Gulf of Mexico. Karen's minimum central pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, or 29.59 inches of mercury.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in place from Morgan City, La., to the mouth of the Pearl River, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect from east of the mouth of the Pearl River to Indian Pass, Fla., including greater New Orleans and lakes Maurepas and Pontchartrain.

A watch means tropical storm force winds, those greater than 39 mph, will be possible within 48 hours. On the other hand, a warning means tropical storm force winds are expected within the next 36 hours. After this time, it will be difficult or impossible to complete outdoor preparations.

Karen will continue a slow northward crawl through the central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, before making a sharp turn toward the northeast and central Gulf Coast on Saturday night and Sunday. It will likely make an initial landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River on Saturday evening, with a second rendezvous expected along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle border on Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the entire central Gulf coast will see Karen`s impacts.

Karen`s biggest threats along the Gulf Coast will be tropical storm to hurricane force winds, large and battering waves including a maximum storm surge of 3 to 5 feet along the Gulf Coast between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Pearl River. Additionally, widespread heavy rainfall is expected along its path inland across the Gulf Coast and Deep South into the Carolina Piedmont into early next week. In fact, more than 6 inches of rain is likely across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and western Florida. These amounts will cause a growing flash flood threat as well.

Residents along the Gulf Coast are urged to monitor Karen`s progress and be prepared for deteriorating weather within the next 24 to 48 hours