WeatherFanatics: Tropics Could Still Come Alive in Gulf, Caribbean

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Tropics Could Still Come Alive in Gulf, Caribbean

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

October 24,2013; 7:50PM,EDT

As suggested last week, the area from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the western Caribbean Sea is an area to continue to monitor for late-season tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.
As large high pressure areas begin to build southeastward from Canada and across the eastern United States, the flow of air around these fair weather systems may help to spin up tropical systems farther south.
While the flow of air into this region is trending cooler, waters are cooling much more slowly.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "If disruptive winds can ease up over this region, there is room for slow tropical development of the clusters of showers and thunderstorms."

Any disturbance that develops in this area would have to spend a fair amount of time over water to become a tropical depression or storm.
"It is possible we see a couple of weak systems come and go over the next couple of weeks over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean," Kottlowski stated.
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This same area is likely to continue to receive rounds of heavy rain over the next couple of weeks, regardless of the degree of tropical development.
According to World Weather Expert Jim Andrews, "The city of Tuxpan, on the east coast of Mexico received at least 8 inches of rain during the 24-hour period ending Wednesday morning, Oct. 23, 2013."
Meanwhile, Raymond continued to unload heavy rain along part of Mexico's Pacific coast Wednesday, before heading out to sea.

Enough rain can fall on some communities in central and southern Mexico to cause more incidents flooding and mudslides in a nation already hit hard by multiple tropical systems from both the Atlantic and the Pacific this season.

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