Not a Tropical Storm Again, But a Gulf Low Will Bring Another Heavy Rain Threat to Florida

Brian Donegan
Published: August 2,2017
Following on the heels of surprising Tropical Storm Emily, a new area of low pressure has now formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to bring another threat of heavy rain to portions of Florida into Thursday.
Fortunately for residents of the Sunshine State, the odds of another tropical depression or tropical storm developing are slim.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Satellite and radar imagery indicate there may be a pair of low pressure areas along the remnant of an old frontal boundary in the central and northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Neither is producing terribly organized thunderstorms, but one circulation less than 100 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, is probably producing the most thunderstorms as of Wednesday morning.
A second area of low pressure is farther southwest over the central Gulf of Mexico, with rather limited shower activity.

Current Radar, Satellite, Watches and Warnings

At least one of these lows is forecast to move northeastward over the Big Bend of Florida late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Due to strong upper-level winds over the central and northeast Gulf of Mexico and the proximity to dry air, the National Hurricane Center assigns only a low chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.
(MORE: The Most Notorious Part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Arrived)

Current Satellite and Wind Shear

Regardless, locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in parts of north Florida Wednesday into Thursday as it approaches the Big Bend and pushes inland across the state.
(MORE: Here's Where Every Hurricane That Made Landfall in the U.S. Since 1966 Began Its Journey)
Some thunderstorms may produce rain rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, which could lead to localized areas of flash flooding.

Rainfall Forecast

This will be more than your typical hit-or-miss afternoon thunderstorms on a summer afternoon, particularly on Thursday.
Emily developed in a similar fashion to this system – from a small area of low pressure along a washed-out front. Therefore, it bears watching despite the low chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
(MORE: Not Just Emily: Here Are Other Tropical Storms and Hurricanes That Developed Suddenly Near the U.S.)
Check back to weather.com for updates in the days ahead.
MORE: Tropical Storm Emily (PHOTOS)

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