By Eric Leister, AccuWeather meteorologist
August 28,2017, 12:51:53PM,EDT
A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure off the coast of western Mexico will heighten the risk for flooding and mudslides.This area of low pressure is expected to become better organized as it tracks northwest parallel to the Mexico coastline this week and may become a tropical storm as early as Wednesday.
The potential tropical storm will remain offshore through Wednesday but could approach the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.
Despite remaining offshore, flooding downpours will stream into the Mexico coastline throughout the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common with local amounts up to 200 mm (8 inches).
Flash flooding will be the most widespread threat; however, there will also be a high risk for mudslides.
This combination will lead to numerous travel delays across the region.
Downpours will expand into Nayarit and southern Sinaloa Wednesday night then reach central Sinaloa and Baja California Sur on Thursday.
Mexico Weather Center
Interactive Mexico weather satellite
East Pacific Hurricane Center
At this point, the tropical threat could be a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane as it brings threats ranging from flash flooding to mudslides and damaging winds to Baja California Sur.
Weakening is expected as the storm tracks farther north. Impacts to northern Baja California will be limited to enhanced showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
No widespread flooding is expected in northern Baja California, and the storm will dissipate without causing any direct impacts to the United States.