Saturday, August 26, 2017

Invest 92L Could Develop Into a Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone Near Southeast Coast By Early Next Week; Heavy Rain Expected in Florida

Chris Dolce
Published: August 26,2017

An area of low pressure near Florida could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone near or just off the Southeast coast this weekend or early next week.
This weather system, for now, has been dubbed Invest 92L – a naming convention used to identify features that have a chance to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm – by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
(MORE: Invest Explained)
We've now been tracking Invest 92L for more than a week, from the central Atlantic to its present location.

Invest 92L Potential Development Area
In the near-term, this system will enhance rainfall in the Florida Peninsula, as well as the Bahamas. That rainfall could contribute to localized flooding from a tropical moisture surge associated with this system.
Some locations in South Florida may see more than 3 inches of rain through Sunday, including Fort Myers and Naples.

Rainfall Forecast Through Sunday
The NHC has given Invest 92L a medium chance of formation into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm within the next five days.
The latest forecast guidance suggests that if low pressure develops near or just off the Southeast coast, it would track northeastward away from Florida and parallel to the Southeast coast. A southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern United States would be responsible for sending this system northeastward.
This area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it moves northeastward regardless of whether or not it is tropical in nature. It is also possible that this system will merge with a front in the region before development occurs.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Depending on where this potential low develops, and how closely it tracks to the Southeast coast next week, areas as far north as the coastal Carolinas could see bands of rain.
Additionally, the development of a potential low-pressure system in tandem with strong high pressure over the Northeast would create an onshore wind flow. That would result in gusty northeast winds, high surf, rip currents and possible coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina.
The next named storm in the Atlantic would be "Irma."
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)
High uncertainty remains with this system, so check back with weather.com for updates through the weekend.
We are in the climatological peak of the hurricane season, so each tropical wave or area of low pressure in the Atlantic Basin must be watched closely for development.
Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan in case of a hurricane strike. The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes has an excellent website to help you make your plan.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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