Tropical Depression Nine has formed near the Florida Keys and will impact Florida over the next few days, even before possibly moving ashore later this week.
Despite battling wind shear for days, a Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission finally found a sufficiently organized low-pressure center, with collocated shower and thunderstorm activity, to prompt the National Hurricane Center to classify the previous Invest 99-L as Tropical Depression Nine. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Monday.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Tropical Depression Nine was centered about 60 miles south of Key West, Florida, as of Sunday late afternoon.
Current Storm Information
At this time, the NHC expects this system to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida coastline later this week. However, they stressed that the intensity forecast for this system is more uncertain than usual.
Forecast guidance shows that the system could be weaker or stronger than currently forecast. It's even possible that it dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before reaching land. Check back for updates throughout this week.
One thing is certain, parts of Florida will see heavy rain in the days ahead.
Projected Path
South Florida and Cuba: Rain, Gusty Winds Expected
As
mentioned before, the main threat to South Florida and Cuba through
Monday will be pockets of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. Winds
could be gusty at times, as well.
Radar, Watches, and Warnings
Some
areas will likely pick up 1-4 inches (locally higher) of rain, possibly
in a short period of time, triggering flooding, particularly in urban
areas.Radar, Watches, and Warnings
(FORECAST: Miami | Key West | Tampa)
Rainfall Outlook Through Wednesday
Gulf Coast Threat Ahead
Upper-level high pressure is now established over the East Coast of the United States.
High pressure locked in over the Carolinas should continue to keep steering flow out of the east-southeast into Monday.
The aforementioned upper-level high is expected to weaken by Tuesday. This will allow the system, and/or its moisture, to get pulled north and then northeast toward the Florida Gulf Coast, potentially moving inland sometime late in the week.
Infrared Satellite Image
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Hurricane Has Hit Since 1985 | Record Gulf Hurricane Drought)
Regardless of the system's ultimate intensity, rainfall flooding looms as a significant threat along or near its track.
(MORE: Rainfall Flood Concern for Saturated Gulf Coast)
A rather expansive swath of the Gulf Coast region has been soaked in August, including the Florida panhandle
August 2016 rainfall, through August 23.Any wind and/or storm surge impacts from this system will ultimately depend on the exact intensity and track of the system late this week.
For now, if you have interests anywhere along the eastern Gulf Coast and in Florida, check back with us at weather.com for any important forecast changes in the days ahead.
(MORE: Most Intense U.S. Landfalls Have Happened in a 17-Day Period)
Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.
Storm History
Before this system formed into a tropical cyclone, it soaked parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas and Cuba.Late last week, more than 1,700 people were displaced from their homes in the Dominican Republic due to heavy rainfall.
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