Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Florida on Alert – Southeast Be Ready – Northeast Be Aware

By: Bryan Norcross , 3:30PM,GMT on August 31,2016



 
Our Tropical Depression #9 is still not quite ready to make the jump to tropical storm. The way it has come together, as it turns out, is not ideal for it to strengthen quickly. We see a fairly rare explosion of tall clouds over the system, which normally stops intensification until those clouds thin out. This is different from the tall clouds we see develop around an eye in an organized system, which signify intensification. It should at least slow down strengthening for a bit.

In any case, it is a large circulation and conditions ranging from life-threatening to aggravatingly disruptive will spread across the northern part of Florida beginning tomorrow.

There is a small chance that the system will reach hurricane strength, but regardless, in the Big Bend of North Florida, people need to prepare for over 6 feet of water over normally dry land, with the surge pushing well inland. This is a critical, life-threatening situation. Farther south in and around Tampa Bay and even as far south as Fort Myers, there will be a noticeable storm surge. Stay in close touch with your local information and instructions.

Otherwise flooding rains, gusty wind, and some tornadoes will spread across Florida, especially north of I-4, tomorrow through Friday. Heavy rain is already falling farther south, and that will continue at times.

The storm, likely Tropical Storm Hermine, will be moving quickly by Friday, picked up and energized by the jet stream. The storm should move over or near the Georgia and Carolina coastline with strong winds – maybe at or near hurricane force – and torrential rain. It’s too early to know if the worst of it will be on land or just offshore, but significant disruptive effects are likely along the coast.

Thankfully, a fast-moving storm coming at the Georgia/Carolina coast from the southwest cannot create a huge storm surge like one coming in from the ocean. But, all coastal residents need to stay informed because some areas are still vulnerable to rising water. There is some chance that the extra energy from the jet stream could strengthen the storm to a hurricane as it leaves Florida, especially if the center goes back over the ocean.

And then there’s the Northeast and New England. All this slow motion in the Gulf has changed the timing so there’s a chance that the system will be blocked from going out to sea and end up as a significant coastal storm somewhere and maybe everywhere from New Jersey to New England over the Labor Day weekend.

It would likely be more like a nor’easter, or it might reacquire some tropical characteristics, but the details are not important. The National Hurricane Center will treat it just like a hurricane or tropical storm no matter what, if there is a threat to land. There will be hurricane/tropical storm warnings and other alerts as necessary. Recall in Sandy there was a big controversy because no hurricane warnings were issued for the Northeast. But that has been fixed, so the warnings should be clear.

The biggest threat is that people don’t pay attention to an annoyingly ever-changing forecast and get caught.

The worst case here is a life-threatening combination of wind and rising water all the way from Florida to New England over the next 5 or 6 days. The best case is people evacuate where it is required in Florida and the threatening weather stays offshore farther north. As annoying as it is coming on a Labor Day weekend, it will be a lot more annoying being surprised by rising water and dangerous wind. Stay informed and be aware.

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