The year 2014 has made it very apparent that global warming has not stopped, as the year-to-date-period January - November 2014 was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). If December is at least 0.42°C (0.76°F) higher than its 20th century average, 2014 will surpass 2005 and 2010 as the warmest year on record; the departure of temperature from average during the first three weeks of December has exceeded that mark, making it likely that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record in NOAA's reckoning. The average global sea surface temperature was the highest for January - November in the 135-year period of record, due in large part to seven consecutive months (May - November) of record warmth. Remarkably, the record-warm global temperatures of 2014 occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever an extended period of record-warm global temperatures have occurred.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January - November 2014, the warmest such period for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Portions of every continent with good data were record warm, particularly for Europe. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
#2: Monsoon Floods in the India-Pakistan Border Region Kill 648
Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 648 people and doing $18+ billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Hardest-hit were India's Jammu and Kashmir region, where damages were estimated at $16+ billion. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this is the most expensive natural disaster in India's history, surpassing the $11.6 billion price tag (2014 dollars) of the July 1993 monsoon floods. In Pakistan, at least 207 people died in this summer's deluge, and damage was estimated at $2 billion. Crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal in Pakistan, where the six most expensive floods in their history have come in the past eight years--2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2007, and 2013.
Figure 2. Kashmiri residents struggling to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
#3: India's Cyclone Hudhud Does $11 Billion in Damage
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India on October 12 as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. With damage estimated at $11 billion, Hudhud was by far the most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, and their third most expensive weather-related natural disaster, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. However, Hudhud also represents a success story--due to aggressive efforts to evacuate vulnerable areas, the death toll from Hudhud was held to 68, far below the 9,843 people killed during the similar-strength October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone which hit India's coast very close to where Hudhud hit.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
#4: Southeastern Brazil's Worst Drought in 50 Years
Southeastern Brazil's worst drought in 50 years has brought São Paulo, South America's largest city with a population near 20 million, to the brink of running out of water. The drought has cost at least $4.3 billion, making it the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history. This is the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in Brazil--drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage, making it Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in history. According to the international disaster database EM-DAT, Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.)
Figure 4. Cattle in a drought-parched filed in Quixada, Ceara state, Brazil on January 2, 2014. Small farmers in Ceara state have not able to harvest corn to feed cattle, and have been selling them at a loss. Image credit: Aurelien Francisco Barros/AFP/Getty Images.
#5: The California Drought
Severe, extreme or exceptional drought covered 95% of California by September 2014, thanks to a drought that one research team said was the state's worst 1-year and 3-year drought for at least 1,200 years. The California Farm Water Coalition estimated agricultural losses at $3.6 billion.
Figure 5. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, on January 20, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.
#6: Deadly Landslide in Afghanistan Kills up to 2,700
The deadliest weather disaster of 2014 may have been the tragic landslide in the Argo District of Badakhshan Province, NE Afghanistan on May 2. Death toll estimates vary widely, from 350 - 2,700. According to Dave's Landslide Blog, the landslide came after prolonged heavy rainfall in the region and occurred in the middle of the day on a Friday, when many people are likely to be at home. The slide occurred in two phases, with an initial slide that buried many people. In the aftermath, many people from local villages went to help, only to be buried by the second landslide.
Figure 6. Aftermath of the deadly landslide in the Argo District of Badakhshan Province, NE Afghanistan, on May 2, 2014. Image credit: BBC correspondent Bilal Sarwary.
#7: Super Typhoon Rammasun Kills 206 in China
With a name meaning “thunder of God,” Rammasun was the strongest typhoon to hit China’s Hainan Province in 41 years. Rammasun peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph, and hit China with top sustained winds of 140 mph. Rammasun killed 206 and did $6.5 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.
Figure 7. Super Typhoon Rammasun as seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:35 p.m. local time (0535 UTC) on July 18, 2014. The storm had a well-defined eye situated just off the coast of northern Hainan Island, and a pressure of 899.2 mb was measured at a small island in the eye. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards.
#8: "Polar Vortex" Cold Hits Eastern U.S.
The same unusually sharp kink in the jet stream that brought record drought to California in January also brought extreme cold and snow to the eastern two-thirds of the United States, with a deep trough of low pressure ushering in the notorious "Polar Vortex" cold air outbreak. Ice cover on the Great Lakes reached its second highest extent on record during the winter, and two crippling snow and ice storms hit the deep South, shutting down Atlanta for multiple days. Total damages during the January 5 - 8 portion of this winter's cold blast were $3 billion and 21 people died, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.
Figure 8. Abandoned cars litter Cobb Parkway (US 41) in Atlanta, Georgia between Cumberland Pkwy and W. Paces Ferry Road. Image credit: Michael King @mhking
#9: A Hyperactive 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
In 2014 the Eastern Pacific (east of 140°W) saw 20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes, making it the busiest season since 1992, which set records for total number of named storms (25), hurricanes (14), and intense hurricanes (8). An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The top four busiest years in the Eastern Pacific now stands like this:
1. 1992 - 24 named storms
2. 1985 - 22 named storms
3. 1983 - 21 named storms
4. 2014 - 20 named storms
4. 1990 - 20 named storms
Unusually warm ocean temperatures allowed an unprecedented three hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Hawaii in 2014, including Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall on the Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds--only the second recorded landfall of a tropical storm on the Big Island.
Figure 9. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar at 7:49 am EDT August 8, 2014 of Tropical Storm Iselle near landfall on the Big Island. The radar beam was being intercepted by the high mountains of Hawaii, and could not "see" to the northwest.
#10: A Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season ended up with well below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 1981 - 2010 average was 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million. The quiet season was due to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and high wind shear over the Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures were also near-average, and considerably cooler than what we've gotten used to since the active hurricane period that began in 1995.
Figure 10. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo was at peak strength, with 145 mph winds, and was the first Atlantic hurricane to reach sustained winds of at least 145 mph since Hurricane Igor of 2010. Gonzalo hit Bermuda just a week after Hurricane Fay hit the island, and Gonzalo's remnants went on to batter the United Kingdom on October 21 with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, killing three people there. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.
Happy Holidays, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
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