November 2014 was the seventh warmest November on record, and the
year-to-date-period January - November was Earth's warmest such period
since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. NASA
rated November 2014 as the 8th warmest November on record. November
ended a 3-month streak with record warm monthly temperatures—August,
September, and October 2014 were all the warmest such months on record.
Global ocean temperatures during November 2014 were the warmest on
record. This marks the seventh month in a row (beginning in May 2014)
that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record.
Global land temperatures in November 2014 were the 13th warmest on
record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2014 for the
lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 8th or 2nd warmest in the 36-year
record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2014, the 7th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Australia, Austria, and Switzerland all set records for their warmest November on record. The coolest temperatures over land were recorded in the Eastern U.S. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
Figure 2. Global temperatures in 2014 compared to the previous five warmest years on record, dating back to 1880. After a relatively cool start, 2014 is now on pace the break the warmest year record set in 2010, according to NOAA. The years 2013 and 2014 are the only years on this list not to begin during a mature El Niño event. The years 1998 and 2010, each of which became the warmest year on record at the time, ended the year in a strong La Niña event, as evidenced by the relative fading of global average temperature later in the year. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
No billion-dollar weather disasters in November 2014
No billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during November 2014, according to the November 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the first month since January 2012 without a billion-dollar weather disaster. The global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first eleven months of 2014 is 24. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 39 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of November, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.
No official El Niño, but unusual warmth in Eastern Pacific
Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past seven months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. November 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has continued into mid-December, standing at 0.9°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will be in place this winter and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 65% chance of an El Niño event this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event.
Arctic sea ice falls to 9th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November 2014 was the 9th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was slightly above November 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2014, the 7th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Australia, Austria, and Switzerland all set records for their warmest November on record. The coolest temperatures over land were recorded in the Eastern U.S. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
Figure 2. Global temperatures in 2014 compared to the previous five warmest years on record, dating back to 1880. After a relatively cool start, 2014 is now on pace the break the warmest year record set in 2010, according to NOAA. The years 2013 and 2014 are the only years on this list not to begin during a mature El Niño event. The years 1998 and 2010, each of which became the warmest year on record at the time, ended the year in a strong La Niña event, as evidenced by the relative fading of global average temperature later in the year. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
No billion-dollar weather disasters in November 2014
No billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during November 2014, according to the November 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the first month since January 2012 without a billion-dollar weather disaster. The global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first eleven months of 2014 is 24. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 39 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of November, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.
No official El Niño, but unusual warmth in Eastern Pacific
Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past seven months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. November 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has continued into mid-December, standing at 0.9°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will be in place this winter and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 65% chance of an El Niño event this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event.
Arctic sea ice falls to 9th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November 2014 was the 9th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was slightly above November 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
Jeff Masters
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129. sar2401
4:32 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting Doppler22:We were doing some work on this as far back as 2000. The fatal flaw is trying to get enough warning time to really do much good. Using the example of the one minute warning time in the story, the quake would occur near the Salton Sea. That's about 150 miles from Los Angeles. Even a massive quake near the Salton Sea wouldn't produce significant damage in Los Angeles. The most deadly and damaging quakes occur within 20 miles of a population center. Now we're talking about less than 10 seconds warning, assuming everything is working right. We just couldn't sell the system based on such short warning times. It appears the technology is the same as in 2000, which depended on radio signals traveling faster than ground waves. That advantage only becomes apparent with quakes far enough away not to be a real threat. I don't know how they sold the system this time but early warning has to be more than 10 seconds if it's going to do much good. |
128. Treehorn
4:32 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 85. Neapolitan: I'm not disagreeing with what you quoted. However, Aon does benefit from alarmingly high damage estimates. Their goal is to show these estimates are increasing at a very rapid pace to 1) gain market penetration in underinsured regions by highlighting increased risk and 2) show the rate and severity is increasing exponentially to enable increasing premiums on those already insured for future events. For these two points alone, you should be highly skeptical of a For-Profit Insurance Company providing damage estimates. The fact that they are a "highly respected insurance company" as you say has not convinced me of their good intentions. |
127. Drakoen
4:29 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| We'll have to see what the GGEM, UKMET, and ECMWF says. |
126. Bluestorm5
4:25 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 125. Drakoen: Hence why these GFS lows are weak and not "exploding" up East Coast. Agree with you this is a bad trend, but I think GFS models are just lost right now trying to figure out this messy transitional pattern. |
125. Drakoen
4:22 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| It seems there is some sort of deamplification of the shortwave trough after it crosses the Mississippi River Valley as the flow becomes nearly zonal over the Southeast. |
124. Dakster
4:20 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 116. txjac: I miss him too... And glad Moanday is gone too. |
123. Bluestorm5
4:16 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| * |
122. Bluestorm5
4:16 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| Regular GFS is weaker with southern energy, but still transferred the low southeast via Miller B track. |
121. Drakoen
4:12 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| PGFS 00z has the low down in the Florida panhandle. Bad trend. |
119. skook
4:11 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| I wish the community standards policy actually mattered. |
118. DonnieBwkGA
4:04 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| Another nice day. 34/70 Fog but no frost in the morning. Down to 43 with thick fog now |
117. Drakoen
4:03 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
I think there is a 50/50 chance of a significant event occurring at this point.Quoting 102. washingtonian115: |
116. txjac
4:03 AM GMT on December 16, 2014|
Looks like I am in for some cooler, clearer weather tomorrow! High predicted of 65F In the mood for a clear sunny day. Was sitting here thinking about MikatNight ...the one blogger that shared his morning walks with his dog with us. I miss his posts Thanks goodness Monday is behind me ...was a long one |
115. washingtonian115
3:43 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 111. Dakster:Growing up in the D.C area it something you're use to. |
114. Neapolitan
3:33 AM GMT on December 16, 2014|
So I see several long-winded attempts to move the conversation way
from the original calumny-filled statement that AB is "well known" for
artifically inflating the cost of natural disasters in order, to line
their pockets. Tsk-tsk-tsk... Allow me to state this again: Benfield's numbers are based on reality. They come from insurance companies, governments, disaster relief organizations, and so on. The company is widely-respected, and would stand to lose everything if they indulged in blatant fraud of the type they've been accused of here. So when they say that climate scientists have been proven correct--that is, that weather-related natural disasters are indeed increasing in frequency and severity, and that's contributing in large part to increasing property damages--you can feel safe listening to them...especially when the alternative is heeding the illogical ramblings of nameless people on a web forum... ;) |
113. Dakster
3:32 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 112. BayFog: That is great news... |
112. BayFog
3:11 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| Good news in California. All the major reservoirs have come up several feet. Smaller reservoirs around the SF Bay Area are full up with spillways active for the first time this season. More rain expected thru the end of the week with a likely and necessary dry period after that. |
111. Dakster
3:02 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 110. washingtonian115: Sorry to hear that. Figured, I move to Anchorage, Alaska and t is the warmest year on record so far. Although there is a little snow on the ground. (Of course, now I jinxed it and 20 feet will fall tomorrow). |
110. washingtonian115
2:59 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 108. Dakster:I don't think a white Christmas will happen in D.C.Maybe for people N.W of D.C but certainly not here.I was hoping for cold and sunny but looks like it'll be cold and maybe rainy. |
109. Dakster
2:57 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 106. Doppler22: I bet no puns intended, eh? |
108. Dakster
2:56 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| Washi - Hows the white XMAS coming along? Gonna get any snow?? |
107. Doppler22
2:37 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 74. TropicalAnalystwx13: Hmmm... Areas west of I-95 could score big... I do not mind that at all. :D |
106. Doppler22
2:35 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
105. Jedkins01
2:20 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 90. Huracan94: It happens more often than once per decade, it happened last winter for starts. But every few years is more like it, heck, Tampa sees the flakes about once per decade. |
104. PedleyCA
2:20 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| This one is moving real slow.... the next one has more rain--supposedly.... |
103. TimSoCal
1:46 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Incoming.
|
102. washingtonian115
1:46 AM GMT on December 16, 2014|
CWG not to impressed for the 12/21 storm.I'm not either. Ian-CapitalWeatherGang 6:49 PM EST I'm personally not too enthused for the city on the next event. I've been kinda focused on the New Year and pattern does look very good by then from here. Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang 6:59 PM EST This, and other models%u2026looking kinda wet here. Once again, no source of cold air. Looking like another elevation event... |
101. washingtonian115
1:31 AM GMT on December 16, 2014| Someone sent me the link to the before and after pics of the tsunami 2004 event on TWC site.There's a picture with a dead child.C'mon have some friggen respect -_-. |
100. sar2401
1:18 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting CosmicEvents:I was going to post some the links from inside the industry, where something closer to the truth emerges, but it seemed like a waste of time in this case. My dad was in the business for 50 years, starting as an adjuster. I wish he was still around. He could write a far better reply than I can about how the business really works. |
99. Patrap
1:13 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
All right, we hear ya Who Dat Nation from down dere. Good Luck tonight, and pass the tabasco for my Brats here will yas? Soldier Field, 1410 Museum Campus Drive, Chicago, IL Monday 7:00 PM Light rain 43F |
98. sar2401
1:08 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting lostinohio:While I'm sure you've been a nice boy, I doubt that Santa is going to come through on this one, unless a really late Christmas gift counts. If this pattern changes along with the NAO finally going negative, north Georgia has a pretty good chance of seeing snow sometime in the middle two weeks of January. There's an outside chance we could see a dusting down in south Alabama, but we had a historic snowstorm last year. From my search of the records, we've never had two back to back years with measurable snowfall, so I don't have hopes we'll break that record this year. |
97. opal92nwf
1:05 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 84. ncstorm: Oh yeah! it'll be interesting to see what actually happens. Regardless, I think this is going to be a very noteworthy system. |
96. opal92nwf
1:01 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 90. Huracan94: It did happen less than a year ago |
95. PensacolaDoug
12:57 AM GMT on December 16, 2014|
I usually don't answer Nea's comments since I don't see them unless he's quoted. I shot milk out my nose! |
94. PensacolaDoug
12:56 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 84. ncstorm: I LIKE IT! |
93. CosmicEvents
12:53 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 85. Neapolitan:You're showing a cute naivity when it comes to how re-insurance corporations work to lower THEIR risk and raise THEIR reward. THEIR interests are in ways to extract the highest premium with the lowest payout. To these corporations...they don't care about non-insured things, like a human life. They're not at ground level where the adjuster decides if some drywall is a storm-insured loss, or neglect. . The hardest way for them to increase profit is to fight payouts at the end-user claim point deciding on drywall. They don't over-estimate property losses after the fact...they do over-estimate the risk profile before the fact. The easiest way is to look at what they do: 1. Consider the payouts from nation interests...FEMA, etc. in the US vs. not much in second/third world....that sops up lots of money before their insurers pay. 2. Look to how each state has allowed premiums to increase. Look to find a peer-reviewed source that allows for more 1 in 100 year events in other states. Look to maximize profit by segmentation. Look at each insurer's payoff on claim rate. Look to this. To start. Link Link |
92. sar2401
12:48 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:I usually don't answer Nea's comments since I don't see them unless he's quoted. In this case, it's him that is displaying incredible ignorance of how the insurance business works. The higher the casualty loss, the higher go premiums, since insurance companies have to charge a rate that covers expected losses plus their profit. Guess where data about expected losses comes from? Reinsurance companies like Aon Benfield cover property and casualty insurers when they experience losses high than their actuarial tables predicted, for a fee, of course. The primary insurers pass the reinsurance cost through to the insureds through higher rates. It's in no one's interest that's part of the insurance industry to underestimate casualty losses, but it sure is in their best interest to inflate estimated losses as much as possible. Since Nea lives in Florida, he should have seen his homeowner's insurance (or renter's insurance, as the case may be) continue to rise even though there hasn't been a significant hurricane in nine years. My insurance premiums skyrocketed after the 2011 tornado outbreak even though the closest tornado to hit my area from that outbreak was 100 miles away. Expecting the insurance industry to produce scientifically reliable loss estimates is like assuming that a company like Exxon Mobil to produce accurate estimates of oil demand. |
91. 62901IL
12:37 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5: a white winter solstice for my area maybe? |
90. Huracan94
12:28 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 84. ncstorm: Snow all along the Gulf Coast? I doubt it...that's like a once per decade sort of thing O_O |
89. 62901IL
12:27 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting ncstorm: I know its 360 hours out, but, YAY!!! |
88. VAbeachhurricanes
12:02 AM GMT on December 16, 2014
Quoting 85. Neapolitan: That is not how the economics behind insurance companies works though, pay out less then you will be forced to lower premiums and deductibles. Having a higher payout rate means you have a reason to increase premiums and to increase deductibles. So in this case for insurance companies, inflating numbers to increase size of payouts, will increase the numbers profit wise in the future. Not saying that is what is happening here, just if one were to be looking to increase profits, that is how they would do it. |
87. lostinohio
11:53 PM GMT on December 15, 2014|
Let it SNOW,.................. Just as long as i see it by the 1st of the year!! i'M BEGGING!!! And i have been a nice boy Santa..... Oh yea. i live in Calhoun, Georgia in case your memory is fading a tad....... |
86. GeoffreyWPB
11:47 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
They brought down West Palm's temps by about 5° for the late weekend
and heading into next week. The fantastic weather continues! From Miami NWS Disco... THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SATURDAY ARE NOT MORE THAN 30 PERCENT. SATURDAY IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE THE DAY OF THIS WEEK HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, UPPER 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE, AND AROUND 80F FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S INTERIOR AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. |
85. Neapolitan
11:39 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
Quoting Treehorn:The thing that's often forgotten by detractors of Benfield's numbers is that the company isn't "benefiting financially" from higher estimates and hence higher premiums; the company is actually paying out more and more and more every year as the number of catastrophic incidents increase. I'm not saying the company isn't making a profit. But one would think the easiest way for them to manipulate facts and figures to increase that profit were they given to doing so would be to minimize the effect of current disasters by simply denying payouts. Know what I mean? At any rate, I found the following passage from that link interesting, and very much applicable to the current blog entry: "During the past decade, incidents of natural disasters that meet EMDAT criteria have increased six fold compared to the 1960s and the increase is mainly due to small and medium scale disasters... Of the total, almost 90 % are hydrometeorological events such as droughts, storms and floods and scientific evidence suggests that global climate change will only increase the number of extreme events, creating more frequent and intensified environmental emergencies." |
84. ncstorm
11:34 PM GMT on December 15, 2014|
Since I noticed some people are able to post the long range GFS without ridicule I thought I'll take a stab at it.. The 12z GFS run would cripple the south..and yes its fantasy land but oh boy if this came to fruition..   
|
83. Sfloridacat5
11:12 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
Quoting LargoFl: This system just before Christmas might be the first rain all month at my location (Fort Myers). Officially at the airport, they've only picked up .01" for December. |
82. Treehorn
11:07 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
Quoting 72. Neapolitan: I would never go to a source for damage estimates that would receive a financial benefit from higher estimates, seems conflicting. Below is a link to a UK report on the matter: Link And quoting part of the report: "The use of economic loss data on a global level is troublesome for a variety of important reasons and should be handled with care. First, economic loss data is available for a minority of disaster events. Some 36% of all disasters in Emdat since 1961 have economic losses reported and most of these are from upper or upper-middle income countries. Increasingly, loss figures are also generally reported by insurance companies, governments of affected and inter-governemental agencies. As a consequence, in countries or communities where ownership and value of economic assets are low, reported economic damages and insurance penetration are also likely to be commensurately low. About a fifth of poorest countries report economic losses at all and, as in these countries insured assets are a minor part of the losses incurred by disasters, the loss data from insurance sector can be misleading for global analyses. Second, methodology to assess economic loss is not standardized and therefore precludes even broad comparability between estimates. The ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment (DALA) and its derivative PDNA are used by the World Bank and others. Its applicability for most events remains limited due the wide scope of the assessment. Both methods require a large team of economists trained in its use and a long field presence, sometimes over a month, to complete the exercise. Third, loss of life is not included in the economic loss calculations, seriously underestimating the loss in poor countries, where values of physical assets are low and lives lost are high. Poor countries have difficulties qualifying for loans and grants as loss estimates are based on physical infrastructure damage. Methods such as the DALA or PDNA do not account for the value of lives lost. In consequence, losses from disasters such as Cyclone Nargis (80 000 dead) or Haiti (225 000 dead) remain relatively insignificant as the economic value of human lives lost is not factored in. The wider debate around the economic valuation of life and its ethical implications complicates the calculation of a global estimate. But meanwhile, the death tolls are not factored in at all in recovery planning." |
81. JohnLonergan
11:06 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
Quoting 37. sar2401: Obviously, he had nothing intelligent to say. |
80. Sfloridacat5
11:05 PM GMT on December 15, 2014|
Blizzard from February 10th, 2010 Sterling Virginia - just NW of Washington DC. 32" of snow at Dulles Airport from that storm. 
|
79. LargoFl
10:58 PM GMT on December 15, 2014
going to be one interesting day alright,just before xmas too.........................
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