By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
November 21,2014; 10:40PM,EST
A blast of frigid air is
whipping the eastern half of the nation this week, though relief is in
the way. (Photo/AccuWeather Facebook Fan Laura Kosht Ice)
Though winter is certainly on its way, the change in seasons will become more gradual for areas like the Midwest and Northeast in the beginning of December.
The recent cold blast, which is more typical of January than November, can be linked, in part, to the significant cold air and snow stretching across Siberia.
The polar flow that came from the cold air building over Siberia's snowpack sent a frigid air mass southward, according to AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
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"The snowpack into northern Canada was impressive, too, so it wasn't able to modify the temperatures. The cold air just kept coming," he said.
"It set the stage for significant, record-breaking cold in the United States, about three weeks ahead of schedule."
In the South this week, the cold sent Atlanta's highs into only the upper 30s. The city's lows fell into the lower 20s, a 20-plus-degree departure from normal.
In the Midwest, Chicago's highs reached only the mid-20s with lows in the teens. Departures from normal ranged from 15 to 20 degrees.
A period of relief is in store as the cold weather pattern breaks down near Thanksgiving, but it will be short-lived. Temperatures will temporarily rebound to springlike levels, before turning cold again at the middle of next week.
In early December, however, a milder flow of Pacific air will replace the long-standing frigid air masses. The air will be more concentrated from the Pacific than from the pole, which will have a big impact on temperatures across the United States, Pastelok said.
"The weather will revert to a normal pattern near the Arctic."
The lack of Arctic intrusions will allow temperatures to climb from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Carolinas.
At times, temperatures in Chicago will hover 4-7 degrees above normal with highs in the low to mid-40s.
Farther east, in New York City, temperatures in early December will run 4-8 degrees above normal.
"This warmer air will arrive in time for the first weekend of December in the Midwest and East," Pastelok said.
Warmer-than-normal water temperatures off the Eastern Seaboard will reinforce the higher air temperatures but could alter the track of storms this winter, pushing them farther inland, Pastelok said.
For the winter season in general, this will allow for more changeover systems along the I-95 corridor, while the bulk of the snow will center on the I-81 corridor and westward.
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- Ryan QuickAccuweather is more interested in clicks than science. Becoming too commercialized. If you are relying on forecasting models past say, 10 days as the basis for this article you are using poor forecasting. The last and current arctic outbreak were not picked up by models until about 7-9 days out. Other, more science based meteorologists however had been calling for it for several weeks. Need to consider the Stratospheric warming event that is occurring earlier this year than last, the warm waters also rebuilding off the coast of Alaska, Siberian Snow Cover and more. Don't just rely on models, it makes your forecasts look foolish.
Devin Plourde · Top CommenterEXACTLY. This forecast for 10+ days out in December is setting itself up for miserable failure. All of the long range models are all over the place for 10+ days out!! And, to be it all, they're speaking definitively! Saying that early December WILL be very warm, 10+ days out, as if it's set in stone. That shouldn't be done even when all the models are saying the same thing, never mind in this case with all the models showing something different.
- Devin Plourde · Top CommenterThe theme of the pattern we've been in is for warm ups to be very muted and unimpressive as we get closer to them. Sure, we'll ease off of the very anomalous pattern we've seen in mid-November, but I highly doubt we'll go significantly above average into December. Calling for 4-8 degrees above normal in the east in early December just sounds ridiculous to me, especially with them saying that this "will" happen. That's quite frankly irrationally confident and asking to be horribly wrong. I think we'll be around average, maybe slightly above, with some warmer periods and some cold shots. There will even be a few snow chances thrown in. Nothing looks extremely warm, unless you're going by certain long range models... Which is just absurd given that they've been struggling badly in the long range.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Oakville, Ontario4 to 8 degrees above average in the 1st half of December would be approaching December 2011 or December 2012 territory, and I do not see that happening. I would not be shocked if a couple of days reach the 50's in parts of the Great Lakes during the 1st half of December, but I am not expecting any long-lasting warmth.
- Devin Plourde · Top CommenterExactly... I don't see anything extreme happening either way... I'm pretty certain there won't be extreme cold, but nothing supports extreme warmth either (4-8 degrees above normal would be pretty extreme in my opinion). I do think we'll be above normal, just not by a lot, and sure there will be some 50s.
Christopher E. Corrigan · Follow · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston Globe
Eric Westberg · Carlisle High SchoolWait a week and this predicted warm up will turn into an arctic blast. The last 2 or 3 predicted warm ups have played out this way here in Iowa.
Neven Prvinic · Follow · Cleveland State UniversityI still think that teh Great Lakes is in for at lest a repeat of last winter if not even worse, as we are still pretty much stuck in the same pattern we had for most part since February of 2013, which is why my area in northeast Ohio has been constanly below normal for almost 2 years now (with the few exceptions). It is interesting to point out that we had a similar flow and below normal pattern from November 2002 all the way to June 2005.- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Oakville, OntarioJune 2005 (And in fact, the 3 month summer period of 2005) was the hottest on record in the GTA. Oh, and also November 2007 to the winter of 2009-2010, there were more months below average than above average for temperature in the Great Lakes.
I agree about your thoughts for this winter though (I don't think the 1st half of December will be too bad though, but the rest of winter will be bad). The warm Gulf of Alaska and Siberian snow cover will more often than not bring frigid shots.
If El Nino forms and sticks around for at least a few months though, I think this might increase our chances for an average to warm summer next year, as most post El Nino summers I have looked up were like that (Notice how summer 2005 was significantly different from summer 2004, same with summer 2010 and summer 2009, and 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were El Nino winters? It might potentially be similar with 2014-2015 as well given how cool this past summer was overall, but again it's only a possibility). Normally summers before El Nino winters tend to be cool and wet in the Great Lakes, but hot and humid after El Nino winters. - Neven Prvinic · Follow · Cleveland State UniversityJune of 2005 was i believe one of the warmest here too along with that summer. I said about 1 month ago that the winter 2004-05 is an analog winter for 2014-15. That winter was overall just a little below normal but it was the snowiest on record here. Now this record breaking Novermber has me thinking that i may be wrong as it never really got very cold in 2004-05 until late december. As for november 2007-february 2010 i do recall that you guys in GTA pretty much missed 3 summers in the row, while we are not that far south from you, we were not as effected by it that time with summers 2007 and 2008 actually being warm and sunny for the most part, but like you we did miss summer 2009 except some heat in the late April and mid August
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Oakville, OntarioSummer 2007 was warm every month except for July in the GTA (But even then, July was only slightly cooler than average that year), so the summer turned out to be near to slightly warmer than average overall. What made that summer especially pleasant was the lack of severe weather and that it was one of the driest on record, although the summers of 2002 and 2001 were fairly similar in terms of dry weather.
June and July 2008 actually averaged close to normal for temperature, but was very wet (2008 was the wettest summer on record in my area). August was chilly though.
Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTDI live between I-95 and I-81. It kind of backs up my theory that the battle zone will be in my area. And the worst weather will be in Mid Jan-Mid Feb. But in reality who knows?- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTDCory Morrison Agreed. I also think the Great Plains (North Dakota to Texas will be well above normal). California is in bad shape unless the El Nino strengthens. My local forecaster is predicting a mild start, then alternations in temperature between very cold and mild and the potential for heavy snow/mixed precip events especially in Jan & Dec. He thinks snowfall will be 25-30% higher than normal and with wide variations in temperature. Where it averages out to is questionable. I did notice that Paul Pastelok has said that the storm track may be slightly to the west of what they thought it would be due to the warm ocean off NJ . So that tells me. East of I-95 mostly heavy rain I-95 to I-81 battle zone. West of I-81 heavy snow likely. so its not out of the question that areas east of Philly may not see much snow while areas around and to the west of Harrisburg get buried. I agree the Upper Midwest and the Plains will see the biggest departure below normal in temps while here is will go back and forth. But I see a couple of stretches where the temps stay in the teens for 2-3 days and drop near 0 at night. (That is rare in these parts).
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversityHow does anyone think this isn't too early for Winter? I think we have some penguins & polar bears voting.- Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Oakville, OntarioEven in late May-early June this year, when there were a few really warm days, I witnessed several people complaining about it being too early for summer (I was like "Really people, you had your long cold miserable winter. Respect the fact that us warm weather fans would like some unseasonably warm weather every once in a while. Something that has been the biggest stranger to 2014").
Andrew Nagy · Top Commenter · Cashier at Targetit seems like the only time they let us know about the weather is when it warms up. which makes no sense.
William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem BarI agree too.I'm not sold on it being near 70 here in the New York area come Monday. Not saying that it won't be above the normal of 48 or so for that date,but I'm not buying the near 70 for NYC on Monday.This past Monday,they predicted mid 50's and it barely got even close to 50 degrees and it didn't reach the high of 48 here until like 8PM,while most of the day it was 41,42 degrees.So I'm thinking it'll be more closer to 60 than 70 (say 62,63 degrees),on Monday,but we'll see.There's still a couple more days for them to adjust the temp forecast up or down from here.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Oakville, OntarioI am guessing a warm period from December 5th-15th in the Great Lakes/Northeast is likely before a potentially very cold 2nd half of December. Time will tell if I am wrong or not, but this is just my thinking at this point.
John Belli · Top CommenterI just watched Weatherworld on PCN and they predicted below normal temperatures in December until the 17th of the month, which is the end of the forecast period.- Christopher E. Corrigan · Follow · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston Globe
Tori Akins · Works at Pauline Rodgers School of Dance- Christopher E. Corrigan · Follow · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston Globe
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