Sunday, August 20, 2017

Will two new tropical systems join Harvey in the Atlantic in the coming days?

By Jordan Root, AccuWeather meteorologist
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather meteorologist
August 20,2017, 10:17:00AM,EDT
In addition to Harvey, two additional tropical features are being monitored in the Atlantic basin but rapid development is unlikely at this time.
These clusters of showers and thunderstorms, one dubbed 92L and the other potentially to be called 93L, remain disorganized at this time across the tropical Atlantic.
A number between 90 and 99 is assigned when there is potential for the formation of a tropical depression or storm, with the "L" signifying that it is in the Atlantic Basin.
“Currently, 92L is being sheared by strong northwest winds and the system is sandwiched between two large areas of dry air and dust,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction at different layers of the atmosphere. This condition can prevent tropical storms from forming or cause established tropical storms to fall apart.
These conditions will keep 92L in a disorganized state into Monday as it brushes Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
92L track 8.19 AM

If the wind shear relaxes some and this system is able to move into an area with more moisture, then tropical development is possible.
Regardless of how organized this feature is, it will still lead to an uptick in drenching showers and thunderstorms across nearby Caribbean islands through Monday. This, combined with recent episodes of heavy rain, can heighten the risk for flash flooding.
Residents and interests in the Bahamas and U.S. should keep an eye on 92L through this week.
tropical concern early next week bahamas florida

As of this time, 92L poses the greatest threat to the U.S. out of all of the tropical features in the Atlantic. However, unless it is able to strengthen, the risk for impacts will mainly be limited to flooding downpours fueled by the tropical moisture and rough surf.
"If 92L managed to develop, but remain offshore, then effects similar to Gert could occur along the Atlantic coast of the U.S.," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"It is also possible 92L may drift into Florida for a time, before turning back out to sea to the northeast, where it could develop late in the week or next weekend," Sosnowski said.
Another batch of thunderstorms is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This area of disturbed weather is beginning its path farther to the north than most systems thus far this season.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized with this feature.
"There is a considerable amount of dry air and dust to the north of the system and this unfavorable air will limit thunderstorm development and slow further organization of this system," Kottlowski said.
These environmental conditions will likely remain unfavorable for development over the next few days as this feature moves westward.
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
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Steering winds will likely turn this system more to the north early this week, which will keep it over the open Atlantic and away from North America. However, it could travel close to Bermuda.
The next two names on the list for the Atlantic hurricane season are Irma and Jose.
Even if the two systems fail to develop into anything more significant, those living in the Caribbean and U.S. will want to continue to monitor the tropics over the next month or two.
The peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10 is quickly approaching, which will increase the odds of tropical storm and hurricane formation.

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