Friday, August 18, 2017

Will Tropical Storms Irma and Jose join Harvey in the Atlantic in the coming days?

By Jordan Root, AccuWeather meteorologist
August 18,2017, 2:11:27PM,EDT
 Following the formation of Harvey, two additional tropical systems may form across the Atlantic Basin with one potentially impacting the U.S.
These clusters of showers and thunderstorms, one dubbed 92L and the other likely to be called 93L, remain disorganized at this time across the tropical Atlantic.
A number between 90 and 99 is assigned when there is potential for the formation of a tropical depression or storm, with the "L" signifying that it is in the Atlantic Basin.
“Currently 92L is being sheared by strong northwest winds and the system is sandwiched between two large areas of dry air and dust,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
These conditions will keep 92L from rapidly strengthening and may even keep 92L in a disorganized state through the weekend as it travels just north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
92L Leeward Islands weekend

If the wind shear, or change of wind speed and direction with altitude, relaxes some and this system is able to move into an area with more moisture, then tropical development is possible.
Regardless of how organized this feature is through the weekend, it will still lead to an uptick in drenching showers and thunderstorms across nearby Caribbean islands through Sunday night. This, combined with recent episodes of heavy rain, can heighten the risk for flash flooding.
Residents and interests in the Bahamas and United States should keep an eye on this feature down the road.
“If 92L does manage to become a tropical cyclone, it could move near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas into the eastern Straits of Florida during early next week,” Kottlowski said.
tropical concern early next week bahamas florida

As of this time, 92L poses the greatest threat to the United States out of all of the tropical features in the Atlantic. However, unless it is able to strengthen, the risk for impacts will mainly be limited to downpours fueled by the tropical moisture and rough surf.
Another tropical wave is several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more organized around this feature. However, environmental conditions will only be slightly favorable for any further development in the short term as this feature moves westward.
"There is a considerable amount of dry air and dust to the north of the system and this unfavorable air will limit thunderstorm development and slow further organization of this system," Kottlowski said.
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Steering winds will likely turn this system more to the north late this weekend into early next week, which will keep it over the open Atlantic and away from land.
The next two names on the list for the Atlantic hurricane season are Irma and Jose.
Even the two systems fail to develop into anything more significant, those living in the Caribbean and U.S. will want to continue to monitor the tropics over the next month or two.
The peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10 is quickly approaching which will increase the odds of tropical storm and hurricane formation.

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