Monday, August 21, 2017

Harvey Likely to Come Back to Life in Bay of Campeche Later This Week; Potential Threat to Mexico, South Texas

August 21,2017
What was once Tropical Storm Harvey is now expected to have a second wind later this week in the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing a threat of heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern Mexico and parts of south Texas.
Hostile winds aloft shredded Harvey's circulation Saturday over the Caribbean Sea, and the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
What is left of Harvey is a cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the Yucatan Peninsula to Belize and Guatemala.
A hurricane hunter aircraft investigated the remnants of Harvey Sunday afternoon and found that the system hadn't regenerated into a tropical depression or tropical storm because it lacked a well-defined center of circulation, and there was also no indication of tropical-storm-force winds. This was still the case on Monday, according to satellite imagery and surface observations.

Harvey's Remnants
Through Tuesday, Harvey's remnant will continue to spread its clusters of locally heavy rain from parts of Honduras and Nicaragua northward into Belize, Guatemala and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancún and Cozumel.
This heavy rain could trigger flash flooding in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly over higher terrain.

Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
By Wednesday, Harvey's remnants will move into the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf of Mexico) where conditions are likely to be more favorable for the system to regain its circulation and become a tropical depression or tropical storm again.
The majority of forecast guidance at this time suggests a reborn Harvey could then track northwestward toward the coast of eastern Mexico or Deep South Texas by Friday.
Residents and visitors in eastern Mexico and south Texas should continue to follow the progress of Harvey's remnants, as uncertainty remains with forecast details.

One Other Disturbance to Monitor

Invest 92L continues to fester near the central Bahamas, with thunderstorms extending southward to Hispañola.

Water Vapor Satellite Imagery
We will continue to monitor the progress of Invest 92L as it moves west-northwestward during the next couple days in the general direction of Florida.
For now, this system will enhance rainfall chances in the Bahamas, as well as southern and eastern Florida, this week.
It may eventually interact with a cold front near the Southeast coast later this week, and that's when we'll keep a close eye on it for any potential increase in organization. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a medium chance of development within the next five days.
We are in the climatological peak of the hurricane season, so each tropical wave or area of low pressure in the Atlantic Basin must be watched closely for development.
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)
Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan in case of a hurricane strike. The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes has an excellent website to help you make your plan.
Check back with for updates in the days ahead on these latest systems and the rest of hurricane season.
(MORE: The Weather Company Forecasts More Active Hurricane Season Than First Predicted)

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

No comments:

Post a Comment