Saturday, August 19, 2017

Harvey Could Rebound in the Western Caribbean; Two Other Areas Are Being Monitored For Tropical Development

August 19,2017
Harvey has weakened to a tropical wave in its fight against hostile environmental conditions, but it could still pose a threat to Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula early next week.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Harvey is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity due to unfavorable winds in the upper atmosphere. Hurricane Hunters found no closed center on Saturday evening.

Infrared Satellite: Tropical Depression Harvey
Late Sunday into early next week, Harvey is forecast to enter the western Caribbean where conditions could be conducive for gradual organization as it moves west-northwest.
Harvey could pose a threat to parts of Central America and/or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Monday or Tuesday. Regardless of Harvey's condition, heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides in those areas.

Projected Path and Intensity
By the middle portion of next week, Harvey's remnants may move into the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf of Mexico) where it will have to be monitored closely.
Residents and visitors in eastern Mexico and south Texas should continue to follow the progress of Harvey as uncertainty remains with forecast details.

Two Other Disturbances to Monitor

Invest 92L continues to fester to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
Wind shear has chipped away at 92L's structure and overall development chances. Hostile wind shear typically rips apart tropical disturbances and weaker tropical cyclones.
We will continue to monitor the progress of Invest 92L as it moves west-northwest during the next several days in the general direction of the Bahamas. Eventually, this system may enhance rainfall chances in the Bahamas as well as much of Florida next week. Conditions could be slightly better for tropical development when 92L gets to the northwestern Bahamas or near Florida.

Water Vapor Satellite Imagery
Models continue to show that a cold front will pick 92L up somewhere near Florida and push it toward the northeast, but exactly where that happens is uncertain.
Finally, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean is not expected to develop, but we will watch it over the next several days. Its future track is expected to be northwestward into the open Atlantic Ocean.

Satellite and Wind Shear
We are in the climatological peak of the hurricane season, so each tropical wave or area of low pressure in the Atlantic Basin must be watched closely for development. As the image to the right shows, named storms can form in about every part of the Atlantic Basin this time of year.
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)
Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan in case of a hurricane strike. The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes has an excellent website to help you make your plan.
Check back with for updates in the days ahead on these latest systems and the rest of hurricane season.
(MORE: NOAA Predicts Active Rest of the Hurricane Season)

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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