Thirsty Southern Drought Areas Likely to Finally See Widespread Soaking Rainfall This Week

Chris Dolce
Published: November 27,2016
A well-needed soaking is on the way for parts of the southeastern United States in the throes of a major drought, where some locations have seen little, if any, rainfall for many weeks.
The potential for significant rainfall is courtesy of a more favorable jet-stream pattern taking shape during the first half of this week.
(MORE: Extended Forecast Maps)

A sharp, southward dip in the jet stream will pull a surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Deep South early this week. This will result in some much-needed rainfall.

Specifically, a pronounced southward dip in the jet stream in the western states will punch eastward through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is suggesting that the strong jet stream, in combination with its associated surface frontal system, will pull a significant surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Deep South.
This weather-pattern setup will likely deliver one of the most widespread soakings portions of the South have seen in a long time.
Locations in various degrees of drought, from eastern Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas to Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and the western Carolinas, all have the potential to see up to two inches of rainfall, possibly more in some locales, during the first half of this week.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Birmingham, Alabama | Jackson, Mississippi | Nashville, Tennessee)
Exactly how much rain falls will depend on how this weather system evolves and how quickly it moves. The rain will come in two rounds – one moving in late Monday into Tuesday, and then another Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Potential Rainfall the Next Five Days

On the southern side of this storm system, there could also be severe storms. For more on that story, see the link below.
(MORE: Severe Storms Possible in the South)

Latest Drought Status, Dry Streaks and Impacts

Exceptional drought, the worst category on the U.S. Drought Monitor, is currently affecting parts of six states in the South. A much larger area of the South is experiencing various other levels of drought severity, from eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the western Carolinas.
Alabama and Georgia lead the way with 35 percent and 34 percent of those states in exceptional drought, respectively. The percentage of Alabama in exceptional drought is the highest it has been since early 2008.
(PHOTOS: Southeast Drought)

Southeast drought status, as of Nov. 22, 2016. Parts of six states were in exceptional drought, which is the worst category possible.

Oneonta, Alabama, had not seen measurable rain (0.01 inches or greater) for 89 straight days through Nov. 18, until receiving just a scant 0.03 inches of rain the following day.
Many other cities in Georgia and Alabama also have extensive record-long streaks with no measurable rain.

Record Streaks Without Measurable Rain
Through Nov. 26, 2016 (Data: ACIS)

Cartersville, Georgia	69 days	Previous record: 44 days ending October 20, 1938
Dothan, Alabama	69 days	Previous record: 49 days ending November 2, 1961
Albany, Georgia	61 days	Previous record: 27 days ending May 25, 2011
Anniston, Alabama	61 days	Previous record: 38 days ending July 1, 1988
Rome, Georgia	60 days	Previous record: 40 days ending October 10, 1897

Atlanta had seen 41 straight days without measurable rain through Nov. 26. This breaks the Georgia capital's record of 39 days with no measurable rain.

The tinder dry conditions from the dearth of rainfall has fueled hundreds of wildfires in the Southeast. At least 34 large fires were ongoing, as of Nov. 22, in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.
Here are some other impacts from the southern drought compiled in the U.S. Drought Monitor report, as of Nov. 22:

• Streams in portions of the South are at record low or near-record low levels.
• Ponds have dried up in parts of Alabama and Mississippi.
• Some cattle producers are having to use their winter hay supply. The USDA says that in Mississippi the winter hay supply has already been used up in some locations.
• 100 percent of the topsoil moisture and 98 percent of subsoil moisture in Alabama was rated dry or very dry.

MORE: NASA Images of Our Changing World