Winter-Early Spring Weather Outlook: Warmer Temperatures Will Remain the Trend

Linda Lam
Published: November 18,2016
Temperatures are expected to be near average or warmer than average across the Lower 48 for the remainder of 2016 into 2017, according to an outlook released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
La Niña will likely be an important factor in the temperature and precipitation forecast into early 2017, but there are other elements to consider as well.

Winter

Near-average temperatures are anticipated during the December through February period in much of the West, as well as along the East Coast. Meanwhile, warmer-than-average conditions will stretch through the Plains and into the Midwest, with temperatures the highest above average in parts of the upper Midwest.
A pattern more like El Niño is expected to persist through at least mid-December, characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier, with near-average temperatures in portions of the Southeast and West.
Changes are likely later in December, which may lead to cooler temperatures, especially in northern regions of the contiguous U.S. as the winter progresses.

December-February temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Temperature changes in the second half of the winter will probably be in response to the weak La Niña that is likely to persist through this winter.
(MORE: La Niña Is Expected To Last Through Winter)
This La Niña pattern should "drive plenty of Arctic air into western Canada, but the eastern U.S. may be rather warm during late winter without significant blocking or relaxation of the unusually strong North Pacific jet," Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said in a news release.
Climate forecast models are in "unusually good agreement," regarding the warmer-than-average temperatures expected this winter in the East, Crawford said.
Another important factor to keep in mind is the El Niño "hangover" that has influenced temperatures this year and will likely continue to skew temperatures toward the warmer side for the next several months.
However, there are some indications – including the above-average high pressure in Siberia – that there may be an increase in blocking in the second half of winter, which could lead to colder conditions than currently depicted, especially in the eastern U.S.
(MORE: Siberia Snow in October Could Mean a Harsher Winter in the U.S.)

December-February precipitation outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Precipitation this winter will be near to slightly wetter than average across the northern tier, which is generally consistent with a La Niña winter.
Drier-than-average conditions will prevail through the South, as well as in portions of the Southwest. This is not good news for these drought areas.
(MORE: South May Not See Much Relief from Drought This Winter)

Early Spring Preview

La Niña may continue to have some influence on weather conditions into early spring.

February-April temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Temperatures are currently expected to be slightly warmer than average from the southern Plains into portions of the Deep South and mid-Mississippi Valley.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
Elsewhere, near-average temperatures will be found along the East Coast and into much of the Midwest and West.
However, atmospheric conditions may change in early 2017, which could alter the expectations for weather conditions this spring, so be sure to check back to weather.com for the latest forecast updates.

MORE: Summer in Winter