By Michael Kuhne, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
November 18,2016; 11:54PM,EST
Longer, harsher winters may be in store for the portions of North America as the polar vortex continues to weaken and shifts, according to a new study.
The polar vortex is a large pocket of frigid air that hovers above the polar regions, and is most prominent in the winter months.
Researchers at China's Lanzhou University penned the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change last month.
Lanzhou researchers found that a loss of sea ice in the Arctic regions due to rising temperatures in the Barents-Kara seas, along with an increase in snow cover over Europe and Asia, has caused the polar vortex to weaken. The pocket of cold air has in turn shifted toward Eurasia.
This movement could lead to colder and possibly extended winter seasons for portions of North America and Eurasia, according to the study.
"With warming and ridging in the Kara Sea, this typically allows for less ice cover but also is a conducive atmospheric pattern for lower temperatures in the North American mid-latitudes," AccuWeather Meteorologist Edward Vallee said.
The polar vortex in winter can extend well into the atmosphere and at times be more than 100,000 feet deep, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
Passers-by
make their way along a snow-covered bridge over the Charles River,
Monday, April 4, 2016, in Boston. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)A weaker polar vortex allows the stratosphere, or a distant part of the Earth's atmosphere, to warm, while a stronger one prevents that process, according to Vallee.
"The stratospheric vortex typically governs the tropospheric vortex [in the lower part of the Earth's atmosphere] during the winter months and is based on polar heating and cooling," Vallee said.
"As the stratosphere warms in winter, it can reverse the wind direction below it," he said.
This could block high pressure systems from taking shape in the high latitudes of the Earth, which would increase opportunities for cold in the mid-latitudes.
According to Smerbeck, the southern shift could bring the other end of the polar vortex toward eastern North America, yielding colder winters for the region.
"There are other factors that determine where the vortex sets up," Smerbeck said. "The warm blob over the north Pacific in winter 2013-2014 and the unusually warm waters along the west coast of North America [for the] 2014-2015 winter contributed to a southward dip in the vortex across eastern North America and cold winters in the central and eastern U.S."
Smerbeck said there is a lot of research still being conducted, and that while some researchers may not find the latest study overly convincing, a mechanical connection between the lack of sea ice and the vortex shift as opposed to just a statistical connection should allow for more accurate modeling.
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At times during the winter, a warm layer of air will develop high up near the stratosphere over eastern Asia and head toward the stratospheric vortex causing it to weaken by being pinched, displaced or even split. This will cause a portion of the stratospheric vortex to extend farther south.
A stronger polar vortex will hold the cold air northward. When it weakens and shifts away from the pole either by squeezing, splitting or displacement, it will drag cold air with it, Smerbeck added.
"Reduced sea ice over the Barents-Kara seas in the fall leads to a storm track that can increase snow cover over Eurasia and Siberia," he said.
"It has been shown that increases in Eurasian and Siberian snow cover in the fall can launch upper-level warming events that reach into the stratosphere and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex," he said, stating that this Arctic warming can weaken and alter the placement of the polar vortex.
Bill Stratford
The
increase in whale populations throughout the Pacific Ocean has caused
more whale methane (flatulence) effervescence than scientists had
expected. The methane along with lightning causes huge oceanic fires
which produce carbon dioxide. No one can predict this as it then causes
a shift in the pole magnetic fields, and as a result solar gamma rays
warm the prevailing wind currents.
Joseph Graziose
So I see Feb 9, 1936 Central Park hit a low of -15F....presumably with Arctic Sea Ice......was that singularly a "polar vortex"?
Joseph Dettore ·
hope the vortex does not hit n..america again!!
Dave Norby ·
Explain the increase in ice cover at the South Pole over the last few years. I think this stuff all balances out over time.
1
Dominique Roche ·
The
reason why we have seen an increase in the ice buildup in the Antactic
region is because the water and air temperature in the oceans
surrounding the polar south have warmed at a much greater speed than the
rest of the earth over the past decades. What happens is that warmer
temperatures allow the atmosphere to carry and hold larger quantities of
moisture. What happens is that more rain and snow have fallen in the
region around Antactica, causing the surface water to become less
salinous. We know very well that fresh water is a conduit for ice
creation, whereas salt water has a much greater difficulty in producing
ice. That's why you're seeing this happen. This is further indication
that the earth is warming. In fact, at 1000meter sealevel depth, the
water temperature is warming at a fast pace. The Arctic Region doesn't
see the same effect because it is a sea surrounded by land. Antarctica
is land surrounded by sea. But Greenland is great indicator of how
rapidly ice is melting.
Tom Mallouk
Hello
climate change deniers and armchair critics of papers in Nature
journals that they haven't even read. These folks are just doing their
best to figure out the science. It's complicated and they acknowledge
the uncertainty in their findings. Uncertainty is connected to risk.
Risk is the reason why we buy insurance against unlikely events which,
given enough time, eventually do occur. The polar vortex is part of the
big picture of climate change, and it's time to take out an insurance
policy.
Raymond Norwood
I
believe our climate is changing for sure I just don't think mankind has
had any significate influence on our climate. I feel sure that if
records were available beginning say 10 million years ago the earth
would have gone through this cycle several times and these cycles will
continue as long as the planet exist.
Rémi Ponsonnet ·
Raymond
Norwood sure, Earth carries billion of humans more than thousand years
ago. The release of carbon stored in oil and gas over million of years
should have asolutly no impact.
Rebecca Renbourne ·
Raymond
Norwood, so let's just assume you're right and take no action. That
sounds so sensible when the issue is on a planetary level that affects
our survival as a species. Yeah, let's just watch it happen and do
nothing. Inertia, what a great strategy. Very cost effective.
Stephen Dahl ·
Some
years it snows in May and other years it rains in January - up here in
the northland that's called weather. will it be a long cold winter - I
hope so....time will tell.
John Hummer ·
Alot of 'could, could, and may', .......bottom line, you don't know!!
Jim Dooling ·
Good to know , I love winter sports . The more snow the marrier , we need it for the drought !
David Walk ·
Works at Retired
Well,
all bases covered. If it gets warmer over north America and Eurasia
they can say,we told you so. Now if it get's colder they can say" we
told you so" !
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