Is This the Season California's Drought Finally Sees Major Relief?

Linda Lam
Published: November 29,2016
October and November have brought above-average precipitation to portions of California, which has brought renewed hopes of relief to the drought-stricken state.
Last year's record-tying strong El Niño did not bring as much precipitation to California as hoped. The good news is that this fall has been wet, bringing some drought relief.
(MORE: What Made This El Niño Different?)

Great Start to the Water Season

Water season begins on Oct. 1 in California. At the start of this year's season, almost 84 percent of the state was experiencing drought conditions, with the entire state seeing at least abnormally dry conditions.
Since then, there has been improvement, at least in northern California.

Drought conditions as of November 22, 2016.
(United States Drought Monitor)

The graphic above shows where drought remains as of Nov. 22, 2016, according to the Drought Monitor. This latest data shows that now 12 percent of California is not even abnormally dry, which is a good trend that hopefully will continue.
However, much more improvement is needed, as 73 percent of the state is still in drought with almost 43 percent experiencing extreme drought, the second-highest category.
According to the National Weather Service in Sacramento, precipitation from Oct. 1 through Nov. 28 has been the highest in 30 years in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, an amazing 201 percent of average.

This is both a great start to the water year and great news regarding drought conditions in the region.
Even better, it's not just the northern Sierra Nevada mountains that have experienced wetter than average conditions since Oct. 1.

Precipitation from Oct. 1-Nov. 28, 2016 compared to average.

Through Nov. 28, Sacramento has received almost double the average amount of rainfall normally expected. From Oct. 1-Nov. 28, Eureka recorded 17.70 inches, or more than 10 inches greater than average.
The 4.47 inches of rain that downtown San Francisco has measured since Oct. 1 is the most in this time period since 2010.

Redding also has received about twice as much precipitation compared to average, making this the wettest fall on record through Nov. 28. This is also the second wettest fall so far at South Lake Tahoe, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
(MORE: Los Angeles First Big Rain in 7 Months Creates Traffic Problems)
Farther south, rainfall has not been quite as abundant. Los Angeles has reported 1.40 inches of rainfall from Oct. 1-Nov. 28, which is 0.21 inches below average. However, it is also three times as much rain as fell during the same period last year when there were hopes of El Niño bringing substantial relief.

More Rain Ahead?

Since La Niña has now developed and is expected to last through the winter, you may be wondering what this means for the chance of precipitation in California.
(MORE: La Niña Is Here and Expected to Last Through Winter)
In a La Niña winter, drier than average conditions are usually found in the southern tier of the contiguous U.S., including southern California, which is not good news for the drought. However, wetter than average conditions are typically found in northern California.
It is important to remember that these are overall trends and do not guarantee plentiful precipitation in northern California or drier conditions in southern California, as there are other factors that play a role in weather patterns during the winter.
Taking additional factors into account, the latest winter precipitation forecast from The Weather Company calls for a fairly typical La Niña pattern.

Precipitation outlook for December through February from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, issued November 28, 2016.

Southern California is expected to be slightly drier than average through February, while northern California may see slightly wetter than average conditions.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
In the short term, the rest of this week looks dry, but rain and snow appear likely to return to at least northern California at the start of the first full week of December.
MORE: California Fires, September 2016