November Reality Check on the Horizon: Cooler Temperatures Coming to the Midwest, Northeast and South

Brian Donegan
Published: November 18,2016
The mild temperatures we've seen so far this month will continue to break down late this week, as a November reality check sets in for much of the country.
While much cooler weather envelops the West and Plains states, the above-average warmth will shift to the Northeast Saturday with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average at times.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

24-Hour Temperature Change

Cooler temperatures invaded the West Wednesday and Plains Thursday. The warmth is now expected to break down in the Midwest and parts of the South late this week as a strong cold front associated with Winter Storm Argos sweeps cold air back into those regions.
(MORE: Winter Storm Argos Forecast)

November Reality Check on the Horizon

(MORE: Snow Cover Is Virtually Absent From the Lower 48 States, a Mid-November Record Low)
The South will also turn much cooler this weekend. Little Rock, Arkansas reached 71 degrees Friday, but Saturday's high will only be in the 50s. Nashville, Tennessee, is another southern city that will cool down significantly over the weekend, dropping from 79 degrees Friday to struggling to reach the mid-50s Saturday.
The Northeast will see warmer-than-average temperatures to end the week and start the weekend. By early next week, however, temperatures will return to near or slightly below average across the region.
New York will see highs climb into the mid-60s late this week, but will likely only reach the low 40s by Monday. Burlington, Vermont, will see a high in the low 60s on Saturday but will only see the mercury rise to the mid-30s by Monday.
Low temperatures will also be chilly, with widespread lows in the 20s and 30s this weekend and into early next week from the Midwest into the Northeast and portions of the South.

Record Highs Since Tuesday

Record highs were set Tuesday in:

• Corpus Christi, Texas (90 degrees)
• Tucson, Arizona (89 degrees)
• San Angelo, Texas (85 degrees)
• Amarillo, Texas (82 degrees)
• Pueblo, Colorado (81 degrees)
• Garden City, Kansas (80 degrees)
• Wichita, Kansas (77 degrees)
• Salt Lake City, Utah (73 degrees)
• Reno, Nevada (72 degrees)
• Riverton, Wyoming (68 degrees).

Record highs were set Wednesday in:

• Dodge City, Kansas (87 degrees)
• Garden City, Kansas (87 degrees)
• San Angelo, Texas (84 degrees)
• Amarillo, Texas (83 degrees)
• Joplin, Missouri (82 degrees)
• Goodland, Kansas (82 degrees)
• Denver (80 degrees) – also ties all-time warmest November temperature
• Topeka, Kansas (80 degrees)
• Hastings, Nebraska (78 degrees)
• Springfield, Missouri (77 degrees)
• Cheyenne, Wyoming (75 degrees) – also warmest so late in the year (old record: 75 degrees on Nov. 5, 1981)

Record highs were set Thursday in:

• St. Louis (83 degrees)
• Galveston, Texas (83 degrees)
• Jackson, Mississippi (83 degrees)
• Tupelo, Mississippi (82 degrees)
• Fort Smith, Arkansas (82 degrees)
• Columbia, Missouri (80 degrees)
• Springfield, Missouri (79 degrees)
• Joplin, Missouri (79 degrees)
• Springfield, Illinois (79 degrees)
• Fayetteville, Arkansas (78 degrees)
• Wichita, Kansas (77 degrees)
• Topeka, Kansas (77 degrees)
• Kansas City, Missouri (76 degrees)
• Moline, Illinois (76 degrees)
• Crossville, Tennessee (75 degrees)

Record highs were set Friday in:

• Jackson, Tennessee (80 degrees)
• Indianapolis, Indiana (75 degrees)
• Traverse City, Michigan (71 degrees)

Why Has it Been So Warm?

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles wrote an earlier column explaining why the weather over the Lower 48 states has been so "quiet" recently. Essentially, the reason for the lull in stormy weather over the U.S. is also the reason for the recent record warmth. Namely, the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska have been even stormier than their typical reputation.

This is the jet-stream pattern responsible for the recent record warmth in the northern tier of states and Canada.

Anchored in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, the jet stream's southward plunge, or trough, forces a broad area of higher pressure aloft, known as a ridge, downstream over western Canada and the northern U.S. Not only does that pump warmer air northward, but winds flowing down the slopes of the Rockies also further warm the air to the east of the mountains.
According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, among reporting stations with at least a 30-year period of record, there have been 47 daily record highs tied or broken for every record low over the last month or so.
For monthly records, the ratio is an even more astounding 120 warm records for every cold record.

Daily and Monthly U.S. Warm, Cold Records Tied or Broken in the Last 30 Days
As of Nov. 10, 2016 (Source: NOAA/NCEI)

	Daily Records	Monthly Records
Warm	9,989	601
Cold	211	5

Here are some of the record-warm highlights since last Tuesday:

• All-time November record highs were set Nov. 8 in both Bellingham, Washington (73 degrees), and Vancouver, British Columbia (about 67 degrees).
• Seattle hit 70 degrees on Nov. 8. The previous latest-in-season 70-degree day in the Emerald City was Nov. 4, 1949 and 1980.
• Roughly four dozen daily record highs were set Nov. 8 in western Canada alone, some topping the previous daily record by up to 9 degrees Celsius.
• Bismarck, North Dakota, reached 75 degrees on Nov. 9, their warmest so late in the season.
• International Falls, Minnesota – the self-proclaimed "Icebox of the Nation" – set daily record highs three of four days from Nov. 6-9, reaching 71 degrees on Nov. 7, or roughly the average Labor Day high.
• Five different locations in Michigan's Upper Peninsula topped 70 degrees on Nov. 10, including a high of 73 degrees in Stonington.
• Another 29 daily record highs were set in Canada on Nov. 11, including Banff, which reached 60 degrees (15.6 degrees Celsius). Churchill, Manitoba, and Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories both almost reached 40 degrees (4.2 degrees Celsius).
• International Falls, Minnesota, set a daily record of 63 degrees on Nov. 13. This was also the seventh day with temperatures 60 degrees or higher in the city this November, exceeding 1981 for the most number of days that has happened in the month of November.
• Grand Forks, North Dakota, set a daily record high of 65 degrees on Nov. 13. Only one other day has been warmer there this late in November – a 66-degree reading on Nov. 15, 1939.

MORE: America's 50 Hottest Winter Cities