Hurricane Otto continues to strengthen as it moves westward, and it will make an extremely rare late November landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica on Thanksgiving Day, posing a danger of flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Hurricane Hunters found that Otto not only has regained hurricane status, but also continues to strengthen.
A hurricane warning continues from Limon, Costa Rica, to Bluefields, Nicaragua.
A hurricane watch is in effect for the coast of Nicaragua north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, and for the coast of Costa Rica south of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border. This means that hurricane conditions are possible here.
Current Tropical Watches and Warnings
(LATEST NEWS: Otto Impacts Central America)
Otto is moving slowly just north of due west, and is now about 120 miles east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, as of Wednesday evening.
Current Storm Status
Projected Path
Wind shear is expected to be weak to moderate, but sufficient to keep a lid on major intensification before landfall. Heat content in the southwest Caribbean Sea is well above average for this time of year, likely contributing to the formation/intensification of Otto. It is worthy of mention that small storms can intensify at a faster rate than larger hurricanes.
This will be the first Atlantic tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on Thanksgiving Day, according to Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson of wunderground.com.
Heavy rain, flash flooding and mudslides will be major concerns for Central America, including Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Some locations may pick up 20 inches of rain from Otto.
In addition, areas of heavy rain well to the north of the circulation may trigger flooding in parts of Honduras and Belize.
Forecast Rainfall
Near the center of Otto's track near and a few hours after landfall, some structural damage to homes, downed trees and power outages are expected.
Otto is expected to weaken soon after
making landfall, as the circulation is hampered by the higher terrain of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
However, Otto is
expected to survive in some form once it emerges into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, but will then face increasing wind shear and dry air in
the eastern Pacific into this weekend. When Otto re-emerges into the
Pacific, it will retain the name Otto.
How Unusual is a Named Storm This Late in the Hurricane Season?
November Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones aren't all that unusual.In November, tropical cyclones typically form where the waters are warmest. Thus, one cluster of storms forming in November is in the western Caribbean Sea.
A second broad area of formation is in a broad swath of the western and central Atlantic Ocean, sometimes spinning off from an old frontal boundary, sometimes transitioning from a cold-core low to a subtropical or tropical cyclone.
Tropical cyclone origin points for November.According to NOAA's best track database, only 18 storms of at least tropical storm strength had formed on or after November 21 dating to 1950.
The last to do so was Tropical Storm Olga in December 2007. In fact, it's now been over 10 months between the season's first named storm, the aforementioned Alex, and Otto.
Tuesday, Otto became the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea, surpassing Hurricane Martha in 1969, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Only nine tropical cyclones became hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Basin after November 21 from 1950 through 2015. The last to do so was Epsilon in December 2005.
Only one of those nine hurricanes occurred in the southwest Caribbean Sea, Hurricane Martha in 1969.
Furthermore, in NOAA's entire best track database dating to 1842, there have been only three November or later Nicaragua hurricane landfalls, none of which were anywhere near as late as Otto.
- Hurricane Ida: November 5, 2009
- Unnamed Hurricane: November 1, 1890 (best track has 00 UTC landfall)
- Unnamed Hurricane: November 4, 1887
NOAA has only one tropical storm landfall, in any month, either from the eastern Pacific or Caribbean Sea side in their 174-year database, a December 1887 tropical storm.
There is no record of a landfalling hurricane in Costa Rica, according to the NOAA best tracks database. Otto could be a historical first, there.
More November Perspective
According to NOAA's best track database, there have been 36 Atlantic tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength in November from 1950 through 2015. Twenty of those became hurricanes.Just eight years ago, Hurricane Paloma reached Category-4 intensity, the second-strongest November hurricane of record, damaging or destroying nearly every building on Cayman Brac, according to the National Hurricane Center's final report. "Paloma" was retired from the Atlantic hurricane name list following this event.
(MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names)
In the period of record from 1851 to 2014, no tropical storm or hurricane has impacted the western Gulf Coast from Texas to Mississippi.
November tropical storm and hurricane impacts in the United StatesSince 1851, Florida has been impacted by eight tropical storms and hurricanes in November. The only other states with more than one November impact were also in the Southeast: Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina.
Typically, November tropical systems follow upper-level flow and cold fronts northeastward into the Atlantic Ocean.
In 2015, Hurricane Kate was an early-November oddity, forming from a tropical wave that first soaked the Lesser Antilles, then becoming the farthest north hurricane so late in the season on record north of Bermuda.
By the way, Atlantic Basin tropical storms even form in December, and January, on rare occasions.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this tropical cyclone.
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