Tropical Storm Fiona Faces a Rough Road Ahead in the Central Atlantic

August 18,2016
Tropical Storm Fiona, the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is a bit more organized today, but faces a more hostile atmosphere in the days ahead in the central Atlantic Ocean.
As of Thursday morning, Fiona's convective presentation on infrared satellite imagery looked the part of a tropical storm, with a central area of thunderstorms and some banding evident especially north of the center, which was about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of western Africa.

Infrared Satellite Image

Here is the latest status from the National Hurricane Center:

• Tropical Storm Fiona was located around 1,150 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
• Fiona is moving toward the northwest around 10 mph.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Status

Forecast: Hostile Environment Ahead

As our forecast path shows, Fiona will continue heading northwest into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next five days and is no threat to land.

Projected Path

Although some short-term strengthening is expected, it faces a familiar pair of nemeses headed into the weekend.
First, Fiona is expected to face increased wind shear, namely, differing winds aloft compared to near the surface.

Current Satellite, Wind Shear in the Atlantic

Wind shear tends to displace a tropical cyclone's convection from its center of circulation and can also tilt that circulation. While some intense hurricanes can fend off some light to moderate wind shear, weaker systems can be ripped apart if the shear is too strong.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook Update)
The increased southwest winds aloft responsible for the anticipated wind shear, along with a fairly weak Bermuda-Azores high will also cause Fiona to gain too much latitude to ever be a threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Dry air in the central Atlantic is also expected to wrap into Fiona's circulation, encouraging stronger thunderstorm downdrafts and dispersing the convection from the system's center.

Satellite Image: Where the Dry and Moist Air Is

Therefore, it is possible Fiona, weakened by wind shear and dry air, could degenerate into a remnant low or tropical wave.
Fiona is not a threat to either the Lesser Antilles or the U.S., at this time.
It's not entirely out of the question Fiona, or what's left of it after the hostile environment, could end up somewhere near Bermuda around the middle of next week.
We're now headed into the climatologically most active time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: When Atlantic Season Peak Arrives)
This time of year, you can see tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, lined up over Africa south of the Sahara Desert, ready to emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.

Africa Infrared Satellite

So, while this latest Atlantic system may not pose a significant threat to land, that may not be the case with subsequent tropical waves in the heart of the hurricane season.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this system and any other systems during the hurricane season.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names