Tropical Depression Javier Fizzling Quickly Near Baja California

August 9,2016
Tropical Depression Javier is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone near Baja California, but will spin down to a remnant low sometime later today.
All tropical storm warnings and watches were dropped Tuesday morning, as the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found Javier had weakened to a tropical depression.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Javier's weakening is due to the effects of 1) dry air, 2) interaction with the southern Baja peninsula and 3) some northeasterly wind shear.
Javier has lost its central convection and now consists of simply a swirl of low-level clouds.

Current Storm Status

As with many tropical cyclones tracking near Baja California, Javier has helped to pull a surge of moisture northward into the Southwest U.S. For more details on that story, click the link below.
(MORE: Tropical Moisture Surge Heads For Southwest U.S.)
Here's the latest forecast for Javier's impacts in Mexico.

Forecast

Assuming Javier fails to regenerate any convection near its lingering center of circulation, it should be downgraded to a remnant low by Wednesday at the latest, if not sooner, while continuing to hug the Baja California's Pacific coast.
(FORECAST: Cabo San Lucas | Puerto Vallarta)

Projected Path

Scattered showers and storms mainly on the periphery of Javier's low-level circulation still have the potential to produce locally heavy rain and flash flooding of normally dry washes and arroyos.
On Sunday, winds gusted to 46 mph in Manzanillo when Javier was near the southwest coast of Mexico.

Javier Formed Partially From Remnants of Earl

Javier formed partially from the remnants of Hurricane Earl, which impacted Belize, Honduras and Mexico late last week.
How often does a "ghost" or remnant of a past tropical storm or hurricane help form a new one in a different basin?
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, it's more common than it sounds.
It most recently occurred in October 2014 when eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy made landfall in Mexico. After that, NOAA/HRD says the following occurred:

• Trudy's circulation dissipated in the mountains of southern Mexico.
• The remnant moisture and spin aloft helped spawn a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche.
• That depression weakened to a tropical low before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
• It regenerated into a depression, then Tropical Storm Hanna before landfalling near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Two examples of recent tropical cyclones whose remnants helped spawn a new tropical cyclone in the adjacent ocean basin.
(Data: NOAA/AOML)

It's happened in the opposite direction, as well.
In 2001, Iris made a devastating landfall in southern Belize as a Category 4 hurricane after a less-than-five-day cruise through the Caribbean Sea, spun down to a remnant low, then was reborn as Tropical Storm Manuel in the eastern Pacific Ocean, lasting over a week in that basin.
NOAA-HRD documented 15 total cases of remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes from one basin helping to form new tropical storms or hurricanes in another basin, dating to 1923. They caution that due to lack of satellite data, some other cases prior to the 1970s may have gone undetected.
This has occurred 11 times since the 1970s, or once every 3 to 4 years, on average. One of these cases involved 1974's Hurricane Fifi, responsible for anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 deaths (primarily due to rainfall flooding) in Central America.
(MORE: Tragic History From Tropical Cyclones in Mexico, Central America)
Another bizarre case involved a Category 5 landfall in Belize (Hurricane Hattie in 1961) whose remnant helped form eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simone.
But there's more.
Simone's remnant then ended up back in the Bay of Campeche, merging with another disturbance to help form Tropical Storm Inga.
To recap, that was Atlantic to eastern Pacific back to Atlantic Basin.
(MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names)

Atlantic to East Pacific Mexico Landfall?

You may wonder whether there's any potential analog to what may happen with Earl's remnant. Namely, has an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone spawned from an Atlantic remnant ever made landfall in Mexico?
Several have come close, but officially, it has only happened twice, according to NOAA-HRD:

• September 1974: Hurricane Orlene (seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Fifi)
• September 1971: Hurricane Olivia (made landfall in Baja California as a tropical depression; seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Irene)

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes