Much-Needed Relief Ahead For Drought-Stricken Northeast

Tom Moore
Published: August 12,2016
Brown lawns, low-running rivers, slow crop growth and unwelcome pests in homes are just some of the factors making much of the Northeast beg for rain, as drought conditions expand.
Rain that moved across the region Wednesday was just a preview of what to expect in the days ahead.
Due to a change in the weather pattern, additional rounds of rain are on the way through this weekend, and there could be a lot of it.
(MORE: Expansive Flood Threat Ahead)

Radar, Watches, and Warnings

Setup For Heavy Rain

After a prolonged dry spell, a number of factors are coming together that will likely result in significant rain for the weekend and even into early next week across the Northeast.

A stalled frontal boundary and a surge of moisture (pink) from the southwest will combine to produce significant rain across the Northeast this weekend.

In the upper atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure (bulge in the jet stream) will build along the East Coast. Meanwhile, an approaching trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will be blocked by the ridge and will weaken over the Great Lakes.
At the surface, a frontal boundary will stall and become stationary from the lower Great Lakes to northern New England. At the same time, a surge of moisture will push northeastward into the region.
The stalled front will aid in lifting this moisture, resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms over an extended period.
With the frontal boundary remaining in place, there could be some very heavy rain falling over the same locations.
A significant part of the Northeast could see at least two to three inches of rain through this weekend. Parts of northwestern Pennsylvania, upstate New York and western New England could see three to five inches of rain (with locally heavier amounts).
With that much rain falling over a limited period of time, localized flooding will become a concern. The chance for rain could also extend into Monday.

Northeast Rainfall Forecast Through Sunday

(MORE: Flood Threat For Gulf Coast)

Worsening Drought in the Northeast

The period from March through May – climatological spring – was one of the driest on record across parts of the Northeast. These conditions have continued during July and August, and temperatures have generally been well above average. This combination has created moderate to severe drought over a significant portion of the region.
According to NOAA's Northeast Regional Climate Center, the period from March through July was the driest on record for Buffalo, New York, since 1941. Here are some Northeast cities with rainfall totals compared to average from June 1 through Aug. 11, according to the National Weather Service.

City	Rainfall	Average Rainfall
Buffalo, NY	3.48 inches	8.09 inches
Boston, MA	2.49 inches	8.43 inches
Hartford, CT	5.95 inches	10.13 inches

Across western New York, residents have tried in vain to keep their lawns green. According to The Buffalo News, a number of rat infestations in the city has markedly increased this summer as these unwelcome pests search for sources of water.

U.S. Drought Monitor (Northeast) valid Aug. 11, 2016, indicates that more than one-quarter of the region is experiencing moderate (tan) to severe (orange) drought conditions.

According to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, fruit farmers around the eastern Great Lakes have been forced to use excessive amounts of water for irrigation, and rivers in western New York are running far below average.
On Aug. 3, state officials issued a drought warning for 22 western and central New York counties. Although there are no mandatory water restrictions, residents are urged to conserve water voluntarily.
The drought has hampered the dairy industry in upstate New York and parts of New England as cows are producing less milk.
According to telegram.com Worcester, Massachusetts, has imposed water restrictions on its residents, and if relief doesn't come soon, they may be forced to purchase water from the Quabbin Reservoir for the first time since 1999.
The upcoming wet period, however, is expected to put a significant dent in the drought. Hopefully, flooding can be kept to a minimum.
Somewhat paradoxically, the drought-hardened soil may actually increase the threat of flash flooding, as heavy rain is less able to soak into the hard ground, acting somewhat more like paved areas.
MORE: Northeast Rainbows