Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to fire up late Tuesday night through Wednesday from parts of the South to as far north as the Ohio Valley.
Wednesday appears to be a dangerous day across those regions with a tornado outbreak likely, according to Dr. Greg Forbes, a severe weather expert at The Weather Channel.
The Tornado Conditions Index, better known as TOR:CON, has been raised to as high as 7 out of 10 for parts of west Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama on Wednesday, meaning there's a 70 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will also be possible in a much larger area from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. TOR:CON values as high as 5 and 6 stretch from northern Louisiana and central Mississippi to eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
(TOR:CON: See the Tornado Threat in Your State)
This is a serious situation that you should prepare for if you live in or are traveling through the affected states Wednesday. Be sure you have a way to get warning information and have a plan prepared for finding safe shelter should severe weather affect your location.
(MORE: Tornado Safety)
Severe weather setup on Wednesday.This Christmas week severe weather threat is due to an area of low pressure that will develop near Oklahoma and track towards the Great Lakes, pulling warm and moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That moist air will then be intercepted by a potent upper-level disturbance moving east out of the Rockies and its associated cold front, leading to the formation of rain and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty with this setup, particularly with how much unstable air will be available for storms to tap into. Cloudiness and shower activity during the morning across the Middle Mississippi Valley could prevent substantial airmass destablization with northward extent, which may limit the aerial coverage of the most robust severe threat.
With several rounds of rain on the way, flash flooding may also be an increasing threat along parts of the Gulf Coast this week. Flash flood watches have already been issued for portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and much of Georgia.
(MORE: Christmas Week Travel Forecast)
Thunderstorm Forecast
- Threat areas: Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will develop from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and much of Arkansas. Some isolated severe thunderstorms may develop as far north as eastern Missouri and southern Illinois by mid to late morning.
- Potential threats: Damaging winds gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Some hail will be possible with the most intense storms. Heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding.
- Cities: Little Rock | Texarkana, Texas | St. Louis
- Afternoon/evening threat area: Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from eastern Arkansas and eastern Missouri, into Illinois, Indiana, the western half of Kentucky, western to Middle Tennessee, much of Mississippi and into parts of Alabama. A few strong thunderstorms could impact eastern Iowa late in the day, close to a center of low pressure.
- Overnight threat area: Strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop further east across parts of Georgia and as far north as Ohio and southern Michigan.
- Potential threats: A tornado outbreak is likely along with damaging winds gusts and large hail. A few strong (EF2 or greater) tornadoes are possible and the threat of tornadoes will continue into the overnight hours, even after midnight. Heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding.
- Cities: Birmingham, Alabama | Huntsville, Alabama | Jackson, Mississippi | Memphis | Nashville | Paducah, Kentucky
Wednesday's Thunderstorm Threat
- Threat areas: Strong to severe storms may linger along the cold front from the central Appalachians to parts of the Gulf Coast.
- Potential threats: Locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and a few brief tornadoes.
- Cities: Atlanta | Birmingham | Knoxville | Mobile, Alabama
Thursday's Thunderstorms Forecast
- The threat of severe weather should be relatively low on Christmas Day, however a few strong to marginally severe storms and heavy rain may develop across Alabama, Mississippi, western Tennessee, southeastern Arkansas, Louisiana and East Texas. The heavy downpours could contribute to flash flooding.
- Computer model forecasts suggest that a vigorous storm system will develop in the southern Plains, bringing a threat for more severe thunderstorms to parts of the south-central states.
- On Saturday, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is possible from central and East Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
- As the storm system wraps up on Sunday, a robust severe thunderstorm threat may develop from East Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and western Tennessee.
(MORE: Deadliest December Tornadoes)
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Monday's Storm Reports
Several tornado warnings were issued on Monday evening in Louisiana. There were reports of trees down near Calcasieu, Louisiana, along with power outages and one person injured in a camping trailer. South of Alexandria, Louisiana near Woodworth, winds during a thunderstorm damaged a car and trees were downed.Snapped an Awesome Shot? Share Your Photo
If you crave pictures of severe weather, you've found your home here. Upload your photos or video (taking care to only take photos and videos from a safe location) and share your experience.(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992
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