Record-breaking warmth will continue to grip much of the central and eastern states through Christmas Day and into this weekend, continuing what has already been a very mild month in those regions. Several cities in the East will likely see their warmest Christmas Eve or Christmas Day on record.
On Christmas Eve, numerous record high temperatures were set before the morning was over. This included New York City, which hit 70 degrees by 8 a.m., crushing the old daily record high of 63 degrees for Dec. 24.
This mild forecast means the prospect for a white Christmas is highly unlikely for many east of the Rockies. Also, some cities in the East may wake up to their warmest temperatures on record for Christmas morning.
(MORE: White Christmas Forecast)
Below we have a look at the forecast, followed by perspective on how warm this December has been so far.
Christmas Week: Warm Weather Pattern Returns
Warmer-than-average temperatures returned to parts of the Midwest, South and East earlier this week.(Forecast: Chicago | Boston | New York)
Though the intensity of the above-average warmth may fluctuate in some locations, parts of the central and especially the eastern states will see temperatures 10 to 30 degrees above average through the weekend.
Forecast Highs Compared to Average
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Dallas | Nashville)
However, the cloud cover will also result in unbelievably balmy nighttime temperatures for Christmas carolers and partygoers. Low temperatures could stay 15 to 35 degrees above average in some areas Christmas morning and beyond in parts of the Midwest, South and Northeast.
On Thursday, dew point values rose into the 60s as far north as the mid-Atlantic, and the 50s into parts of New England, making it feel unusually humid as well. The actual air temperature has reached into the 80s as far north as parts of eastern Virginia Thursday afternoon.
Numerous cities will continue to break daily record high temperatures through this weekend. This will be the warmest Christmas Day on record for several cities in the East.
Forecast Highs Christmas Week
A "cold" front will likely shave a few degrees off the warmth in the Northeast for Christmas Day, particularly across the interior.
That said, Christmas morning will be incredibly mild from the South into the Northeast. By the time children tear open their gifts, temperatures may be above normal daytime highs in many areas east of the Mississippi River.
In fact, Christmas morning could be the warmest on record for several cities in the East. For example, in New York City the low temperature Christmas morning should be well above the warmest low temperature on record for Dec. 25 of 50 degrees set in 1979. The same thing can be said for other cities like Washington, D.C. where the warmest low temperature on record for Dec. 25 is 49 degrees set in 1987. In fact, our Nation's Capital could see its warmest low on record for the entire month of December if it stays 59 degrees or warmer.
Christmas Morning Forecast
- How many record highs possible? More than 50 of the 236 possible weather observing sites in the Lower 48 will be within three degrees of a daily record high for Dec. 25.
- What states? This includes about 19 states stretching from the Northeast coast to Florida.
- Potential cities (current record in parentheses | * denotes record high may be in the morning hours): Atlanta (72 degrees in 1987) | Columbia, South Carolina (79 degrees in 1955) | New Orleans (79 degrees in 2008) | New York City* (64 degrees in 1982) | Providence, Rhode Island (63 degrees in 1964) | Tampa (83 degrees in 1984)
Christmas Day Forecast Highs Compared to the Daily Record
- How many record highs possible? About 65 of the 236 possible weather observing sites in the Lower 48 will be within three degrees of a daily record high for Dec. 26.
- What states? About 15 states from Ohio and Indiana into several states across the South.
- Potential Cities (current record in parentheses): Cincinnati, Ohio (64 degrees in 1889) | Huntsville, Alabama (70 degrees in 1971) | New Orleans (80 degrees in 2008) | Paducah, Kentucky (68 degrees in 2008)
- How many record highs possible? About 66 of the 236 possible weather observing sites in the Lower 48 will be within three degrees of a daily record high for Dec. 27.
- What states? More than 20 states from New York to Florida.
- Potential Cities (current record in parentheses): Atlanta (71 degrees in 1982) | New York City (63 degrees in 1949) | Tampa (85 degrees in 1990) | Washington, D.C. (72 degrees in 1971)
Record Highs Set Christmas Week
Here is a look at some of the daily record high temperatures set so far Christmas week.Christmas Eve: Burlington, Vermont set a new all-time record high for December (68 degrees), which also beat the daily record high temperature by an astonishing 17 degrees. Other daily record highs include Norfolk, Virginia (82 degrees), Columbia, South Carolina (74 degrees), New York City (72 degrees), Albany, New York (71 degrees), Philadelphia (71 degrees), Boston (69 degrees), Hartford, Connecticut (69 degrees), Providence, Rhode Island (69 degrees); Worcester, Massachusetts (65 degrees).
Wednesday: Buffalo (61 degrees); Cleveland (64 degrees); Detroit (58 degrees); Pittsburgh (64 degrees); Indianapolis (64 degrees - tie); Milwaukee (58 degrees); Muskegon, Michigan (62 degrees); Moline, Illinois (60 degrees); Tallahassee, Florida (82 degrees - tie); Traverse City, Michigan (57 degrees);
Tuesday: Nashville (70 degrees); Memphis (70 degrees tied).
Monday: St. Louis (67 degrees tied); West Plains, Missouri (69 degrees); Springfield, Illinois (64 degrees); Peoria, Illinois (60 degrees tied); Naples, Florida (87 degrees tied).
December Record Warmth So Far
According to preliminary data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), at least 2,693 record daily highs were tied or broken across the U.S. during the first 23 days of December. An additional 3,912 record-warm daily low temperatures have been set during the same time period.By comparison, just 147 daily record lows and 140 additional record cool highs were set in the same time frame.
Record Temperature Tracker
Why Will it Be So Warm Christmas Weekend?
A southward dip in the jet stream accompanied the brief cooldown that moved through the East this weekend. Now, early this week, the jet stream will quickly build back north across the eastern half of the nation and allow the widespread mild air to return. This lifting of the jet stream back to the north will be in response to a southward dip in the jet stream sweeping into the West.Meanwhile, the clockwise flow around high pressure in the western Atlantic will allow southerly surface winds to dominate the East this week, pumping warm air from the tropics northward. Southerly winds ahead of a couple of low-pressure systems moving across the country this week will also help pump in the mild, moist air from the south.
Temperatures are unlikely to get much below freezing in most areas outside of the Upper Midwest east of the Mississippi River on Christmas Day, even in the morning and late evening.
Winter Storm Goliath will work to pump more warm air across much of the Mississippi Valley and East through the weekend. As Goliath moves into the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley early next week, those locations east of the storm will remain unusually warm, while somewhat cooler air will be felt to the northwest.
There are signs that temperatures in the Midwest and East could slowly return back to near seasonable levels toward the middle and latter portion of next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment