By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
December 31,2015; 12:47PM,EST
Intense flooding has killed at least 20 people and forced hundreds of roads to close across Missouri and Illinois. Rain-swollen rivers will set records in the Mississippi River basin through much of January.
Flooding on the middle and lower portion of the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries may reach levels not seen during the winter months since records began during the middle 1800s.
Historic flooding shuts down major roads across Missouri
Water levels on the Mississippi could rival the mark set during the summer of 1993 and spring of 1995 and 2011 in some cases.
The 1993 flooding was one of the "most damaging natural disasters to ever hit the United States," according to NOAA. The catastrophic flooding resulted in 50 deaths and damages totaling $15 billion. Thousands were forced to flee their homes, with many unable to return for months.
"All of us remember the devastating impact of the Great Flood of 1993, and that's why we have been working proactively with our local and federal partners to prepare and respond," Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon said.
Record high flood levels were reached along portions of the Meramec River at Eureka, Valley Park and Arnold, Missouri, during Wednesday.
The record of 45.91 feet at Thebes, Illinois, will be topped on Thursday evening.
Cape Girardeau, Missouri, could experience record high Mississippi River levels this weekend.
Many communities along the middle and lower Mississippi valley will be dealing with long-duration high water lasting days and in some cases weeks.
Periods of below-freezing air will cause some flooded areas to turn icy and will add to the challenges.
Communities already hit hard by flooding
West Alton, Missouri, was evacuated on Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015, as waters topped the levees and began to inundate the city.
The flooding led to 11 United States Postal Service stations around the St. Louis metro area to relocate temporarily, according to NewsRadio 1120 KMOX.
In
this aerial photo, flood water covers Interstate 44, Wednesday, Dec.
30, 2015, in Valley Park, Mo. A rare winter flood threatened nearly two
dozen federal levees in Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday as rivers
rose, prompting evacuations in several places. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Out of the 14 deaths in Missouri, 13 were caused by vehicles being swept off flooded roads, according to state officials.
Five of those who died on Saturday were international soldiers attending officers' training at Fort Leonard Wood.
The members from the International Student Detachment on Fort Leonard Wood were returning to post from Osage Beach, Missouri, when their vehicle went off of the road due to flash flooding at a low water crossing site near Crocker, about 15 miles northwest of Fort Leonard Wood, a military spokeswoman said.
The officers from Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Malaysia were being returned to their home countries for burial and services, the military said.
Gov. Nixon urged residents never to drive through flooded roads or ignore barricades. The Missouri National Guard was called into the state on Tuesday to provide additional security to evacuated areas and direct traffic away from closed roads.
Flooding to work downstream through January
The smaller tributaries of the Mississippi will crest relatively quickly following the tremendous rainfall from the storms after Christmas. Meanwhile, the larger tributaries and the Mississippi River will take an extended period of time to crest and then fall below flood stage.
Even after the Mississippi and its tributaries crest in Missouri and Illinois through the first week of January, waters will continue to rise in portions of Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
"It will take weeks or until the latter part of January for the last of the crests to cycle southward to the Gulf of Mexico," Andrews said.
Along the Mississippi, flooding is likely downstream during the middle to latter part of January, including in Osceola, Arkansas, Memphis, Tennessee, and Vicksburg, Mississippi.
Springlike flooding occurs amid El Niño pattern
Since December and November have been so warm and so wet, the atmosphere and watershed are behaving more like it's spring.
Temperatures over much of the Mississippi Valley have averaged 8-12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and featured highs in the 60s and 70s during December.
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During November and December, frequent storms loaded with abundant moisture have delivered rainfall well above average to much of the Mississippi Basin.
The pattern is typical of an El Niño, but rainfall of this magnitude has crossed into uncharted territory for the region.
Since Nov. 1, St. Louis has received more than 18 inches of rain versus the average of 6.50 inches typical for this time frame. St. Louis shattered its December rainfall record of 7.82 inches set during the El Niño of 1982. This December, St. Louis received 11.74 inches of rain.
Farther north along the Mississippi River, Minneapolis has received nearly two and a half times its normal rainfall since Nov. 1.
Just after Christmas the bursts of rain, which amounted to 6-12 inches in some areas, sealed the fate for river flooding.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jim Andrews, "Rainfall is significantly less over the central United States during the winter, when compared to the spring and summer."
"During the wintertime, more precipitation falls as snow over the region, which tends to absorb the runoff and causes river levels to fall."
Floodwater
from the Bourbeuse River surrounds a McDonald's restaurant, Tuesday,
Dec. 29, 2015, in Union, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Flooding in the spring to early summer is much more common as rainfall ramps up and snow melts over the northern tier states, eastern slopes of the Rockies and the west slopes of the Appalachians.
"The amazing thing about this flood is that it has occurred with very little snow melt," Andrews said.
Flooding potential to persist
There is the potential for another round of flooding during the spring of 2016.
"We still have to go through the snowy part of the winter season over the North Central states," AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
Hundreds of flood rescues across Missouri and Illinois
"El Niño may still be strong enough to enhance the strength of the storms and the amount of rainfall during the spring," Pastelok said.
There is some good news in the short term for those battling flooding and trying to protect their property.
The spread of colder air will shut down the storm track into the middle part of the nation through at least the middle part of the first week of January.
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